Match Info

Serie A - Round 30

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome)

Referee: Sacchi J. L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 2, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Angola	Z Sports 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Bolivia	ESPN 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Caze TV, Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada, FuboTV, TLN, VIVA
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN 2, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1, Sport 3
Denmark	TV2 Play
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Max
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 9
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Indonesia	ANTV, Vidio
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3, ART Sport 1
Kuwait	Shasha
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola 2, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 5
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	VG+
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN
Poland	Eleven Sports 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	Sport TV7
Romania	Digi Online, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 2
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360, VTVcab
World	Starzplay Sports app


	Roma		Lecce

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.9	8	Watch
	1.49	4.2	7
	1.49	4.15	7.4	Watch
	1.5	4.25	8
	1.48	4.24	7.76	Watch
	1.44	3.8	7
	1.53	3.96	8.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↑ (1.37)	4.07 ↓ (4.58)	7.61 ↓ (9.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roma
64%

Draw
23.4%

Lecce
12.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69%

20.6%

10.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.9%

18.8%

11.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Lecce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roma than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.1%	9.4%	9.4%

Roma - Lecce Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Roma (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Roma (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - Roma (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Lecce (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Roma will win (42 of 52 users predict this - 80.77%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.06% – 91.48%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Roma will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Roma (votes: 9 - 81.8%). Lecce (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Svilar M. (G) 23. Mancini G. 5. Ndicka E. 22. Hermoso M. 2. Rensch D. 4. Cristante B. (C) 8. El Aynaoui N. 12. Tsimikas K. 61. Pisilli N. 7. Pellegrini Lo. 14. Malen D.	30. Falcone W. (C) 17. Veiga D. 5. Siebert J. 44. Tiago Gabriel 25. Gallo A. 20. Ramadani Y. 79. Ngom O. 50. Pierotti S. 16. Gandelman O. 19. Banda L. 9. Stulic N.
Substitutes
3. Angelino 68. Arena A. 70. De Marzi G. (G) 92. El Shaarawy S. 87. Ghilardi D. 95. Gollini P. (G) 78. Vaz R. 20. Venturino L. 97. Zaragoza B. 24. Ziolkowski J.	99. Cheddira W. 8. Fofana S. 1. Fruchtl C. (G) 14. Helgason T. J. 18. Jean G. 36. Marchwinski F. 3. Ndaba C. 11. Ndri K. 13. Perez M. 6. Sala A. 32. Samooja J. (G)
Coaches
Gasperini G.	Di Francesco E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mancini G. ↓, Ghilardi D. ↑,
51', El Aynaoui N. ↓, Vaz R. ↑,
57', 1 - 0, Vaz R. ⚽, Hermoso M. (A),
61', Stulic N. ↓, Cheddira W. ↑,
61', Gandelman O. ↓, Fofana S. ↑,
67', Banda L. ↓, Ndri K. ↑,
75', Tsimikas K. ↓, Angelino ↑,
75', Malen D. ↓, Arena A. ↑,
77', Angelino 🟨,
79', Pellegrini Lo. ↓, Venturino L. ↑,
81', Pierotti S. 🟨,
85', Pierotti S. ↓, Helgason T. J. ↑,
85', Ramadani Y. ↓, Sala A. ↑,
89', Pisilli N. 🟨,
90', Veiga D. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Roma won 4.

Roma is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Lecce has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Lecce may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Roma is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Roma: Dovbyk A. (Groin Injury) Dybala P. (Knee Injury) Ferguson E. (Ankle Injury) Kone M. (Muscle Injury) Soule M. (Groin Injury) Wesley Franca (Red Card)

There will not play in Lecce: Berisha M. (Injury) Camarda F. (Injury) Coulibaly L. (Injury) Gaspar K. (Injury) Sottil R. (Back Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Roma won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 22:9. (average 2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Roma won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 15:4. (average 3:0.8).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

AS Roma: 12.32% Lecce: 0.14%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	AS Roma	5	4	1	0	14:3	11	13
12	Lecce	5	2	0	3	5:10	-5	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Roma
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Roma - Bologna	3:4 ET ✺
Italian Serie A
15.03.26	Como - Roma	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Bologna - Roma	1:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
08.03.26	Genoa - Roma	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Roma - Juventus	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLTLT
- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
14.03.26	Napoli - Lecce	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Lecce - Cremonese	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Como - Lecce	3:1 ✺
21.02.26	Lecce - Inter Milan	0:2 ✺
16.02.26	Cagliari - Lecce	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
06.01.26	Lecce - Roma	0:2
29.03.25	Lecce - Roma	0:1
07.12.24	Roma - Lecce	4:1
01.04.24	Lecce - Roma	0:0
05.11.23	Roma - Lecce	2:1
11.02.23	Lecce - Roma	1:1
09.10.22	Roma - Lecce	2:1

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