Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 31

Date: 3 May 2024, Friday

Location: Stadion Śląski (Chorzów)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Poland	Canal+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Ruch Chorzów		Lech Poznań

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.6	1.91	Watch
	3.7	3.5	1.93
	3.6	3.6	1.95	Watch
	3.76	3.61	2.12
	3.9	3.65	1.96
	3.5	3.5	1.91
	3.71	3.65	1.92	Watch
	3.65	3.45	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.7 ↓ (4)	3.57 ↑ (3.4)	1.95 ↑ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ruch Chorzów
25.4%

Draw
26.3%

Lech Poznań
48.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.4%

26.4%

51.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.7%

25.6%

52.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ruch Chorzów has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Lech Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ruch Chorzów than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	4.5%	77.3%

Ruch Chorzów - Lech Poznań Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Ruch Chorzów will win (votes: 4 - 18.2%). Lech will win (votes: 17 - 77.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lech: 59.8% – 94.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
36. Stipica D. (G) 21. Sadlok M. (C) 20. Szymanski S. 6. Josema 59. Stepinski P. 7. Letniowski J. 22. Starzynski F. 5. Wojtowicz T. 86. Novothny S. 70. Kozak M. 95. Szczepan D.	41. Mrozek B. (G) 44. Czerwinski A. 18. Salamon B. 16. Milic A. 5. Andersson E. 17. Szymczak F. 22. Murawski R. 6. Karlstrom J. 7. Sousa A. 30. Kvekveskiri N. 9. Ishak M. (C)
Substitutes
24. Baranski B. 77. Bartolewski M. 1. Buchalik M. (G) 19. Feliks M. 10. Foszmanczyk T. 33. Huras M. 26. Michalski K. 13. Moneta L. 88. Vlkanova A.	50. Ba Loua A. 35. Bednarek F. (G) 23. Blazic M. 3. Douglas B. 19. Dziuba M. 2. Pereira J. 11. Velde K.
Coaches
Niedzwiedz J.	Rumak M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', Sadlok M. 🟨,
24', 1 - 0, Szczepan D. ⚽, Stepinski P. (A),
27', 1 - 1, Ishak M. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
63', Szymczak F. ↓, Velde K. ↑,
68', Czerwinski A. ↓, Pereira J. ↑,
69', Kvekveskiri N. ↓, Ba Loua A. ↑,
79', Szczepan D. ↓, Feliks M. ↑,
79', Kozak M. ↓, Moneta L. ↑,
79', Sadlok M. ↓, Bartolewski M. ↑,
80', Andersson E. ↓, Douglas B. ↑,
84', 2 - 1, Feliks M. ⚽,
89', Letniowski J. ↓, Vlkanova A. ↑,
90+1', Feliks M. 🟨,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Stadion Śląski.

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa Conference League (Qualification: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ruch Chorzów won 0.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Lech will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Ruch Chorzów: Barnowski D. (Injury) Dlugosz W. (Injury) Sikora P. (Injury)

There will not play in Lech: Dagerstal F. (Injury) Gholizadeh A. (Injury) Hotic D. (Injury) Sobiech A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Ruch Chorzów: Dadok R. (Injury) Stepinski P. (Injury)

There are questionable in Lech: Gurgul M. (Injury)

Last 16 head-to-head matches Ruch Chorzów won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 12 matches and goals 10-41.

Including matches at home between the teams Ruch Chorzów won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 5-16.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ruch Chorzów
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.04.24	Śląsk Wrocław - Ruch Chorzów	2:3 ✺
20.04.24	Ruch Chorzów - Widzew Łódź	2:3 ✺
12.04.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Ruch Chorzów	5:0 ✺
06.04.24	Ruch Chorzów - Puszcza Niepołomice	0:0 ✺
30.03.24	Raków Częstochowa - Ruch Chorzów	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WLLTT
- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.04.24	Lech Poznań - Cracovia	0:0 ✺
21.04.24	ŁKS Łódź - Lech Poznań	2:3 ✺
13.04.24	Puszcza Niepołomice - Lech Poznań	2:1 ✺
07.04.24	Lech Poznań - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0 ✺
01.04.24	Stal Mielec - Lech Poznań	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
04.11.23	Lech Poznań - Ruch Chorzów	2:0
22.04.17	Lech Poznań - Ruch Chorzów	3:0
04.11.16	Ruch Chorzów - Lech Poznań	0:5
Polish Cup
21.09.16	Ruch Chorzów - Lech Poznań	0:3
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.05.16	Lech Poznań - Ruch Chorzów	3:0
12.03.16	Ruch Chorzów - Lech Poznań	1:3
17.10.15	Lech Poznań - Ruch Chorzów	2:2

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