Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 28

Date: 12 April 2024, Friday

Location: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera (Szczecin)

Referee: Przybyl J. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Poland	Canal+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport


	Pogoń Szczecin		Ruch Chorzów

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.33	5.75	Watch
	1.49	4.4	5.75
	1.5	4.5	5.5
	1.49	4.59	6.44
	1.49	4.57	6.44
	1.44	4.2	5.8
	1.51	4.4	5.7	Watch
	1.5	4.25	5.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.53)	4.41 ↑ (3.9)	5.84 ↑ (4.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pogoń Szczecin
62.8%

Draw
21.2%

Ruch Chorzów
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.7%

23%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.8%

22.2%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pogoń Szczecin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Ruch Chorzów has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pogoń Szczecin than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ruch Chorzów than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.9%	5.3%	15.8%

Pogoń Szczecin - Ruch Chorzów Predictions

Users Predictions: Pogoń Szczecin will win (15 of 19 users predict this - 78.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 60.62% – 97.28%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Cojocaru V. (G) 28. Wahlqvist L. 4. Leo Borges 33. Malec M. 32. Koutris L. 20. Gorgon A. 22. Bichakhchyan V. 73. Przyborek A. 8. Ulvestad F. 11. Grosicki K. (C) 9. Koulouris E.	1. Buchalik M. (G) 59. Stepinski P. 20. Szymanski S. 6. Josema 5. Wojtowicz T. 22. Starzynski F. 8. Sikora P. (C) 77. Bartolewski M. 95. Szczepan D. 86. Novothny S. 13. Moneta L.
Substitutes
21. Gamboa J. 81. Klebaniuk B. (G) 71. Korczakowski O. 68. Loncar D. 51. Paryzek P. 61. Smolinski K. 15. Wedrychowski M. 10. Zahovic L. 23. Zech B.	24. Baranski B. 82. Bielecki J. (G) 19. Feliks M. 10. Foszmanczyk T. 33. Huras M. 26. Michalski K. 32. Potoczny M. (G) 21. Sadlok M. 54. Wilak F.
Coaches
Gustafsson J.	Niedzwiedz J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Bartolewski M. (Own goal),
25', Josema 🟨,
35', 2 - 0, Przyborek A. ⚽, Grosicki K. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Gorgon A. ↓, Gamboa J. ↑,
47', 3 - 0, Koulouris E. ⚽, Bichakhchyan V. (A),
54', 4 - 0, Koulouris E. ⚽,
59', 5 - 0, Koulouris E. ⚽, Koutris L. (A),
60', Starzynski F. ↓, Baranski B. ↑,
60', Moneta L. ↓, Wilak F. ↑,
65', Bichakhchyan V. ↓, Wedrychowski M. ↑,
65', Koulouris E. ↓, Paryzek P. ↑,
72', Josema ↓, Sadlok M. ↑,
72', Szczepan D. ↓, Huras M. ↑,
74', Grosicki K. ↓, Korczakowski O. ↑,
74', Malec M. ↓, Zech B. ↑,
79', Novothny S. ↓, Foszmanczyk T. ↑,
89', Sadlok M. 🟨,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 6 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Pogoń Szczecin won 3.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Pogoń Szczecin could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Pogoń Szczecin is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in Ruch Chorzów: Barnowski D. (Injury) Dadok R. (Red Card) Kozak M. (Yellow Cards) Szczepan D. (Yellow Cards) Szur P. (Yellow Cards)

Last 13 head-to-head matches Pogoń Szczecin won 7 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 22-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Pogoń Szczecin won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pogoń Szczecin
Polish Ekstraklasa
07.04.24	Lech Poznań - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0 ✺
Polish Cup
03.04.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:1 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.03.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Cracovia	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
21.03.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Warta Poznań	0:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
17.03.24	Korona Kielce - Pogoń Szczecin	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWWLT
- Ruch Chorzów
Polish Ekstraklasa
06.04.24	Ruch Chorzów - Puszcza Niepołomice	0:0 ✺
30.03.24	Raków Częstochowa - Ruch Chorzów	1:1 ✺
16.03.24	Ruch Chorzów - Górnik Zabrze	1:2 ✺
10.03.24	Stal Mielec - Ruch Chorzów	3:1 ✺
01.03.24	Ruch Chorzów - Piast Gliwice	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 TTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
07.10.23	Ruch Chorzów - Pogoń Szczecin	0:3
15.04.17	Ruch Chorzów - Pogoń Szczecin	1:2
29.10.16	Pogoń Szczecin - Ruch Chorzów	2:1
15.04.16	Pogoń Szczecin - Ruch Chorzów	1:1
07.03.16	Pogoń Szczecin - Ruch Chorzów	2:3
02.10.15	Ruch Chorzów - Pogoń Szczecin	0:2
06.03.15	Ruch Chorzów - Pogoń Szczecin	2:1

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