Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE A - ROUND 2

Date: 22 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Morumbi (Sao Paulo)

Referee: do Nascimento W. (Bra)


	São Paulo		América Mineiro

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.6	4.75	Watch
	1.77	3.6	4.6
	1.73	3.65	5
	1.8	3.62	5.03
	1.8	3.68	4.33	Watch
	1.8	3.5	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (1.85)	3.61 ↑ (3.33)	4.69 ↑ (4.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
53.3%

Draw
26.4%

América Mineiro
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.6%

28.1%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

30.1%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	0%	41.7%

São Paulo - América Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). América MG will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Paulo: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

São Paulo has the most likely position - 5 (7.83%), project points - 57, currently - 0, a small chance of relegated (8%), a very small chance of win league (3%).

América MG has the most likely position - 17 (7.76%), project points - 45, currently - 0, a chance of relegated (29%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 52, small importance 24, match rating 38. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches São Paulo won 3.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

América MG could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match São Paulo is a favorite.

There will not play in São Paulo: Caio (Knee Injury) Joao Moreira (Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches São Paulo won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 13-8.

Including matches at home between the teams São Paulo won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Copa Sudamericana
18.04.23	São Paulo - Academia Puerto Cabello	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
15.04.23	Botafogo RJ - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
11.04.23	São Paulo - Ituano	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.04.23	Tigre - São Paulo	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
13.03.23	São Paulo - Água Santa	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLTWL
- América Mineiro
Copa Sudamericana
19.04.23	Defensa y Justicia - América Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
15.04.23	América Mineiro - Fluminense	0:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.04.23	Nova Iguaçu - América Mineiro	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
09.04.23	Atlético Mineiro - América Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.04.23	América Mineiro - Peñarol de Montevideo	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
06.10.22	América Mineiro - São Paulo	1:2
Copa do Brasil
18.08.22	América Mineiro - São Paulo	2:2
28.07.22	São Paulo - América Mineiro	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
12.06.22	São Paulo - América Mineiro	1:0
09.12.21	América Mineiro - São Paulo	2:0
22.09.21	São Paulo - América Mineiro	0:0
22.09.18	São Paulo - América Mineiro	1:1

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