Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 14

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio Municipal Cicero De Souza Marques (Bragança Paulista) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	16:00	Flow Eventos
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 6
Brazil	16:00	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	14:00	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Mexico	13:00	Azteca Deportes
North Central America	—	Flow Sports 1 Caribbean
North Macedonia	21:00	MaxTV GO
Paraguay	15:00	Flow Eventos
Russia	22:00	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	21:00	Arena Sport 2
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 3, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
United Arab Emirates	23:00	Dubai Sports 1
Uruguay	16:00	Flow
Usa	15:00	Fanatiz


	São Paulo		Bahia

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.4	3.8	Watch
	2.05	3.4	3.7
	2.02	3.35	3.55	Watch
	2.08	3.52	3.9
	1.99	3.46	3.9	Watch
	2	3.2	3.6
	2.03	3.44	3.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.17)	3.4 ↑ (3.05)	3.76 ↑ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
46.9%

Draw
27.9%

Bahia
25.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.3%

30.2%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

29.4%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	11.1%	5.6%

São Paulo - Bahia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: São Paulo will win (15 of 18 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.11% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 19. Lucas Ramon 28. Franco A. 35. Sabino 18. Wendell 16. Bobadilla D. 94. Danielzinho 37. Artur 10. Luciano 80. Cauly 9. Jonathan Calleri (C)	22. Leo Vieira (G) 5. Nicolas Acevedo 33. David Duarte 21. Ramos S. 46. Luciano Juba 14. Erick 6. Jean Lucas 99. Olivera C. 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 16. Erick Pulga 12. Willian Jose
Substitutes
17. Andre Silva 31. Carlos Coronel (G) 13. Diaz E. 48. Djhordney 11. Ferreira 33. Luan Silva 7. Lucas Moura 45. Lucca Marques 54. Luis Osorio 4. Matheus Doria 21. Soares C. 14. Tapia G.	7. Ademir 27. Everaldo 3. Gabriel Xavier 2. Gilberto 31. Gomez R. 25. Iago Borduchi 34. Joao Paulo (G) 4. Kanu 44. Marcos Victor 15. Michel Araujo 11. Rodrigo 23. Sanabria M.
Coaches
Roger Machado	Mucke R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Artur ⚽, Wendell (A),
41', Nicolas Acevedo 🟨,
45', Bobadilla D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
50', Lucas Ramon ↓, Soares C. ↑,
56', Olivera C. ↓, Sanabria M. ↑,
62', 1 - 1, Luciano Juba ⚽, Everton Ribeiro (A),
63', Cauly ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
71', Wendell ↓, Diaz E. ↑,
71', Danielzinho ↓, Luan Silva ↑,
71', Luciano ↓, Ferreira ↑,
73', 2 - 1, Ferreira ⚽, Jonathan Calleri (A),
81', Diaz E. 🟨,
82', Erick ↓, Ademir ↑,
82', Willian Jose ↓, Everaldo ↑,
84', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
84', Jean Lucas ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
90+4', Sanabria M. 🟨,
90+6', Jonathan Calleri 🟨,
90+7', 2 - 2, Erick Pulga ⚽,
90+7', Erick Pulga 🟨,
90+10', Andre Silva 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 4.

São Paulo is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Bahia has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

São Paulo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

São Paulo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in São Paulo: Lucas Moura (Broken rib) Marcos Antonio (Hamstring Injury) Pablo Maia (Broken nose) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Bahia: Ronaldo Strada (Shoulder Injury) Ruan Pablo (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in São Paulo: Diaz E. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:14. (average 1.2:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:5. (average 1.1:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Bahia	32	13	11	8	45:40	5	50
9	Sao Paulo	32	12	7	13	37:36	1	43

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	Millonarios - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.04.26	São Paulo - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.04.26	São Paulo - Juventude	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.04.26	Vasco da Gama - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.04.26	São Paulo - OHiggins	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TWWLW
- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
25.04.26	Bahia - Santos	2:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Bahia - Remo	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.04.26	Flamengo - Bahia	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Mirassol - Bahia	1:2 ✺
05.04.26	Bahia - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
25.10.25	São Paulo - Bahia	2:0
31.05.25	Bahia - São Paulo	2:1
05.11.24	Bahia - São Paulo	0:3
30.06.24	São Paulo - Bahia	3:1
29.11.23	Bahia - São Paulo	0:1
30.07.23	São Paulo - Bahia	0:0
07.11.21	Bahia - São Paulo	1:0

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