Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 12

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Sao Januário (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Sampaio S. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Azteca Deportes
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-arab-emirates	Dubai Sports 2
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Usa	Fanatiz
World	Onefootball


	Vasco da Gama		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.3	3.6	Watch
	2.12	3.15	3.55	Watch
	2.16	3.29	3.96
	2.19	3.3	3.47	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.3
	2.22	3.38	3.51	Watch
	2.46	3.2	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.39)	3.25 ↑ (3.12)	3.48 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vasco da Gama
43.4%

Draw
29.3%

São Paulo
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

29.5%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

29.2%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vasco da Gama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	12.5%	37.5%

Vasco da Gama - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 4 - 50%). São Paulo will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vasco: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - São Paulo (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 46. Cuesta C. 30. Robert Renan 66. Cuiabano 88. Cauan Barros 23. Thiago Mendes (C) 3. Tche Tche 10. Rojas J. 11. Andres Gomez 7. David	23. Rafael (G) 21. Soares C. 28. Franco A. 35. Sabino 13. Diaz E. 16. Bobadilla D. 94. Danielzinho 37. Artur 10. Luciano 45. Lucca Marques 9. Jonathan Calleri (C)
Substitutes
28. Adson 20. Brenner 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 18. Hinestroza M. 25. Hugo Moura 98. JP 43. Lucas Freitas 6. Lucas Piton 9. Matheus Franca 17. Moreira N. 2. Rodriguez J. 77. Spinelli C.	17. Andre Silva 31. Carlos Coronel (G) 80. Cauly 34. dos Santos P. 30. Felipe Negrucci 40. Igor Felisberto 33. Luan Silva 54. Luis Osorio 42. Maik 4. Matheus Doria 14. Tapia G. 18. Wendell
Coaches
Renato Gaucho	Roger Machado

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Luciano ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Tche Tche ↓, Adson ↑,
46', Paulo Henrique ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
58', Lucca Marques ↓, dos Santos P. ↑,
58', Soares C. 🟨,
62', Rojas J. ↓, Spinelli C. ↑,
62', David ↓, Brenner ↑,
63', Diaz E. ↓, Wendell ↑,
63', Soares C. ↓, Maik ↑,
72', 1 - 1, Rodriguez J. (Penalty Awarded),
74', Franco A. 🟨,
80', Danielzinho ↓, Felipe Negrucci ↑,
80', Luciano ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
81', Cauan Barros ↓, Hugo Moura ↑,
88', 2 - 1, Andres Gomez ⚽, Brenner (A),
90+7', Leo Jardim 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 2.

Recent form of Vasco has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

São Paulo is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Vasco is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Vasco: Jair (Knee Injury) Mateus Carvalho (Knee Injury) Saldivia A. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in São Paulo: Lucas Moura (Broken rib) Lucas Ramon (Red Card) Paulinho (Inactive) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury) Sabino (Overload) Toloi R. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in São Paulo: Marcos Antonio (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 22:32. (average 1.1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Vasco won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:12. (average 1.3:1.2).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Sao Paulo: 0.24% Vasco: 0.09%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	35:35	0	39
14	Vasco	29	9	8	12	36:42	-6	35

Last Results with these Odds

Vasco da Gama - the odds 2.39 are the expected chance of winning is 38.52%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

São Paulo - the odds 2.88 are the expected chance of winning is 31.93%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vasco da Gama
Copa Sudamericana
14.04.26	Vasco da Gama - Audax Italiano	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.04.26	Remo - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.04.26	Barracas Central - Vasco da Gama	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.04.26	Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ	1:2 ✺
01.04.26	Coritiba - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LTTLT
- São Paulo FC
Copa Sudamericana
14.04.26	São Paulo - OHiggins	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.04.26	Vitória Salvador - São Paulo	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.04.26	Boston River - São Paulo	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.04.26	São Paulo - Cruzeiro	4:1 ✺
01.04.26	Internacional RS - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
02.11.25	Vasco da Gama - São Paulo	0:2
12.06.25	São Paulo - Vasco da Gama	1:3
16.10.24	São Paulo - Vasco da Gama	3:0
22.06.24	Vasco da Gama - São Paulo	4:1
07.10.23	Vasco da Gama - São Paulo	0:0
20.05.23	São Paulo - Vasco da Gama	4:2
Copa do Brasil
04.08.21	Vasco da Gama - São Paulo	1:2

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