Match Info

ECUADOR: Liga Pro - First stage - Round 15

Date: 1 June 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda (Quito)

Referee: Arizaga C. (Ecu)


	SD Aucas		Imbabura

	1	X	2
	1.48	4	6	Watch
	1.46	4.1	5.5
	1.47	4.33	6	Watch
	1.46	4.63	6.36
	1.44	4.63	6.36
	1.44	4.33	5.8
	1.46	4.56	6.03	Watch
	1.47	4.15	5.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↑ (1.38)	4.34 ↓ (4.58)	5.99 ↓ (7.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SD Aucas
63.3%

Draw
21.3%

Imbabura
15.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.3%

20.3%

12.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.7%

19.3%

11.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SD Aucas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Imbabura has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for SD Aucas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Imbabura than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

SD Aucas - Imbabura Predictions

Users Predictions: SD Aucas will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lanzillotta F. (G) 18. Gonzalez J. 3. Ontaneda J. 16. Rolon C. 29. Cuero Q. C. A. 17. Batalla H. 7. Vega E. (C) 25. Jaramilo R. 22. Cano L. 19. Blanco J. 11. Munoz A.	1. Valero M. (G) 2. Coronel G. 3. Cabeza E. 4. Medina A. 10. Espinoza T. 6. Benitez J. 8. Caicedo R. 7. Pantoja L. 20. Arteaga M. 9. Paz F. 22. Mendoza E.
Substitutes
14. Briones R. 33. Canga L. 31. Carabali B. 30. Espinosa D. S. 2. Garcia A. 5. Guzman P. 10. Luna Tobar C. 9. Medina J. 8. Mina A. 23. Mohor J. 24. Resendez E. (G) 32. Sanabria M.	34. Alcivar J. 11. Burbano D. 14. Calderon H. 5. Cevallos G. 15. Chavez R. 18. Folleco W. 31. Guisamano J. 21. Mina M. 90. Minda P. (G) 27. Romero C. 26. Santacruz A. 70. Villamil A.
Coaches
Espinoza G.	Armas J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Cuero Q. C. A. ⚽,
27', Pantoja L. 🟨,
44', Caicedo R. 🟨,
44', Vega E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Ontaneda J. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
50', 2 - 0, Batalla H. ⚽, Munoz A. (A),
54', Coronel G. ↓, Santacruz A. ↑,
54', 2 - 1, Paz F. ⚽, Pantoja L. (A),
60', Arteaga M. 🟨,
62', Blanco J. ↓, Medina J. ↑,
62', Jaramilo R. ↓, Luna Tobar C. ↑,
62', Arteaga M. ↓, Alcivar J. ↑,
81', Medina A. ↓, Folleco W. ↑,
81', Caicedo R. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
81', Espinoza T. ↓, Burbano D. ↑,
82', Luna Tobar C. ↓, Mina A. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 2, Mendoza E. ⚽, Santacruz A. (A),
90+2', Munoz A. ↓, Mohor J. ↑,
90+6', Folleco W. 🟥,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 3 and 14).

Two teams are playing changeable.

Imbabura could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Aucas is certain favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Aucas won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Aucas won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
25.05.24	Delfín - SD Aucas	2:0 ✺
19.05.24	SD Aucas - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:2 ✺
12.05.24	Barcelona Guayaquil - SD Aucas	1:1 ✺
05.05.24	SD Aucas - Libertad Loja	2:0 ✺
28.04.24	Deportivo Macará - SD Aucas	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LTTWW
- Imbabura SC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
24.05.24	Imbabura - Emelec	1:2 ✺
17.05.24	Deportivo Cuenca - Imbabura	5:2 ✺
11.05.24	Imbabura - Libertad Loja	4:2 ✺
06.05.24	Técnico Universitario - Imbabura	1:1 ✺
28.04.24	Imbabura - Independiente del Valle	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLWTL

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