Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 13

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda (Quito)

Referee: Salazar B. L. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Teleamazonas, Zapping, Zapping Sports 2+, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	SD Aucas		Universidad Católica del Ecuador

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.25	2.65	Watch
	2.25	3.2	2.7
	2.45	3.2	2.68
	2.62	3.35	2.79
	2.58	3.15	2.78	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.63
	2.57	3.14	2.76	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.32)	3.17 ↓ (3.18)	2.71 ↓ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SD Aucas
37.1%

Draw
29%

Universidad Católica del Ecuador
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

29%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

28.2%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SD Aucas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Universidad Católica del Ecuador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad Católica del Ecuador than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	66.7%	33.3%

SD Aucas - Universidad Católica del Ecuador Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Uni Católica will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Piedra H. (G) 37. Zova A. 16. Gustavino L. 3. Ontaneda J. (C) 2. Morales S. 6. Spina A. L. 21. Guzman P. 10. Preciado E. 18. Mena A. 28. Quinonez R. 33. Porozo S.	22. Romo R. (G) 29. Anangono G. 19. Sevillano M. 4. Jhon Chancellor 44. Valencia E. 15. Moreno L. 10. Martinez F. (C) 32. Alonso M. 23. Rodriguez A. 30. Mejia E. 7. Fajardo J.
Substitutes
29. Arroyo L. 11. Bolanos R. 31. Carabali B. 1. Chaves I. (G) 20. Espinosa D. S. 7. Miranda B. 55. Olaya V. 89. Sosa A. 14. Tapiero S. 57. Vera M.	5. Cacciabue J. 28. Diaz M. 12. Lara J. (G) 9. Londono A. 37. Medina C. 24. Nazareno D. 18. Palacios B. 6. Palacios D. 13. Rose E. 17. Troya R. 26. Yanez S.
Coaches
Araujo N.	Martinez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Alonso M. ⚽, Rodriguez A. (A),
19', 1 - 1, Mena A. ⚽,
24', Sevillano M. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Martinez F. ↓, Troya R. ↑,
59', Rodriguez A. ↓, Londono A. ↑,
64', 2 - 1, Mena A. ⚽,
74', Fajardo J. ↓, Diaz M. ↑,
74', Alonso M. ↓, Rose E. ↑,
78', Porozo S. ↓, Miranda B. ↑,
78', Mena A. ↓, Tapiero S. ↑,
81', Preciado E. 🟨,
86', Moreno L. ↓, Palacios B. ↑,
90', Preciado E. ↓, Arroyo L. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 1.

Aucas is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Uni Católica has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:22. (average 1.9:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Aucas won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 12:8. (average 2.4:1.6).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	U. Catolica	31	14	9	8	52:29	23	51
4	Aucas	31	14	8	9	34:30	4	50

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
01.05.26	Libertad Loja - SD Aucas	3:2 ✺
27.04.26	SD Aucas - Delfín	1:0 ✺
22.04.26	LDU Quito - SD Aucas	0:0 ✺
17.04.26	Leones del Norte - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
12.04.26	SD Aucas - Emelec	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LWTWW
- Universidad Católica del Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
01.05.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Independiente del Valle	2:3 ✺
27.04.26	Manta - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:0 ✺
23.04.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Deportivo Macará	4:0 ✺
18.04.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Libertad Loja	2:0 ✺
12.04.26	Técnico Universitario - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
03.08.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - SD Aucas	6:2
15.04.25	SD Aucas - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:1
Copa Sudamericana
06.03.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - SD Aucas	1:0 penalties
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.11.24	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - SD Aucas	3:2
19.05.24	SD Aucas - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:2
17.08.23	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - SD Aucas	2:2
19.03.23	SD Aucas - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	4:1

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