Match Info

Date: 18 April 2022, Monday


	SPAL		Crotone

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.4	3.75	Watch
	1.93	3.4	3.9
	2	3.45	3.55
	1.91	3.25	3.95
	1.93	3.56	4.35
	2.15	3.2	3.4
	1.94	3.58	3.92	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↑ (1.66)	3.41 ↓ (3.64)	3.83 ↓ (4.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SPAL
47.8%

Draw
27.6%

Crotone
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.8%

25.5%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57%

26.1%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SPAL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that SPAL's form might have worsened.

Crotone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Crotone's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SPAL than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for SPAL, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crotone than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Crotone, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
48.2%	33.9%	17.9%

SPAL - Crotone Predictions

Users Predictions: 56 users predict this event. SPAL will win (votes: 27 - 48.2%). Crotone will win (votes: 10 - 17.9%). It will Tie (votes: 19 - 33.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for SPAL: 35.1% – 61.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 15 and 19 in the zone Relegation).

SPAL has the most likely position - 15 (88.88%), has project points - 38, has currently - 34, has a very small chance of relegated (3%), has not chance of prom. playoffs.

Crotone has the most likely position - 19 (78.14%), has project points - 26, has currently - 21, has a very good chance of relegated (99%), has not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has small quality 25, very small importance 5, small match rating 15. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

SPAL is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Crotone is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

SPAL will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches SPAL won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-5.

Including matches at home between the teams SPAL won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SPAL 2013
Italian Serie B
09.04.22	Lecce - SPAL	1:0 ✺
05.04.22	SPAL - Nuova Cosenza	2:2 ✺
02.04.22	Alessandria - SPAL	2:2 ✺
20.03.22	SPAL - Cremonese	0:2 ✺
16.03.22	Perugia - SPAL	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LTTLT
- FC Crotone
Italian Serie B
10.04.22	Crotone - Ternana	1:2 ✺
06.04.22	Vicenza Virtus - Crotone	1:1 ✺
03.04.22	Crotone - Perugia	1:1 ✺
19.03.22	Monza - Crotone	1:0 ✺
15.03.22	Crotone - Frosinone	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 LTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
04.12.21	Crotone - SPAL	1:2
Coppa Italia
28.10.20	Crotone - SPAL	1:2 penalties
Italian Serie A
25.02.18	Crotone - SPAL	2:3
01.10.17	SPAL - Crotone	1:1

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