Match Info

USA: USL Championship

Date: 25 May 2024, Saturday

Location: Heart Health Park (Sacramento, CA)

Referee: Stevis B. (Usa)


	Sacramento Republic		Birmingham Legion

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.57	3.7	4.6
	1.63	3.75	5
	1.63	3.9	5.13
	1.63	3.9	5.13
	1.66	3.75	4.78	Watch
	1.62	3.7	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.91)	3.78 ↑ (3.32)	4.89 ↑ (3.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sacramento Republic
56.8%

Draw
24.4%

Birmingham Legion
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

27.9%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

27.5%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sacramento Republic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sacramento Republic's performance.

Birmingham Legion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sacramento Republic than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sacramento Republic that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham Legion than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Sacramento Republic - Birmingham Legion Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vitiello D. (G) 2. Gurr J. 5. Timmer J. 3. Viader D. 4. Desmond L. 19. Ross N. 96. Fernandes L. 6. Wiedt S. 23. Phillips K. 15. Jauregui R. 7. Amann T.	1. Van Oekel M. (G) 14. Dodson D. 21. Crognale A. 3. Kavita P. 20. Paterson AJ 13. Rufe J. 8. Hernandez-Foster K. 11. McCartney D. 15. Pasher T. 19. Martinez E. 29. Stefano Pinho
Substitutes
42. Contreras F. 24. Donovan C. 9. Herrera J. 99. Mazzola J. (G) 10. Parano C. 17. Ricketts J. 40. Sanchez A. 55. Ukaegbu C. 20. Willey B.	10. Kassim P. 30. Marlow B. (G) 24. Murana M. 7. Nwegbo D. 33. Nyarko M. 28. Perez M. 23. Preston T.
Coaches
Briggs M.	Soehn T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Timmer J. 🟨,
22', Ross N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', Viader D. ↓, Sanchez A. ↑,
66', Jauregui R. ↓, Parano C. ↑,
66', Amann T. ↓, Herrera J. ↑,
73', Stefano Pinho ↓, Preston T. ↑,
83', Phillips K. ↓, Ricketts J. ↑,
85', Pasher T. ↓, Nwegbo D. ↑,
89', Rufe J. 🟨,
89', Herrera J. 🟥,
89', 🟨,

Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )).

Sacramento Republic is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Birmingham is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Sacramento Republic could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Sacramento Republic is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Sacramento Republic to win the game is with odds 1.65.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Sacramento Republic won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Sacramento Republic won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sacramento Republic FC
US Open Cup
21.05.24	Sacramento Republic - San Jose Earthquakes	4:3 ET ✺
USL Championship
11.05.24	Rhode Island - Sacramento Republic	2:2 ✺
US Open Cup
07.05.24	Sacramento Republic - Monterey Bay	2:0 ✺
USL Championship
04.05.24	Phoenix Rising - Sacramento Republic	1:1 ✺
27.04.24	Sacramento Republic - Loudoun United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WTWTW
- Birmingham Legion
USL Championship
15.05.24	Birmingham Legion - Charleston Battery	0:1 ✺
11.05.24	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Birmingham Legion	0:1 ✺
US Open Cup
08.05.24	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Birmingham Legion	6:4 ET ✺
USL Championship
04.05.24	Birmingham Legion - Tulsa	2:2 ✺
27.04.24	Birmingham Legion - Memphis 901	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
12.08.23	Birmingham Legion - Sacramento Republic	1:1
16.07.22	Sacramento Republic - Birmingham Legion	0:1

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