Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 13

Date: 6 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Lucio Fariña Fernández (Quillota)


	San Luis de Quillota		Deportes Concepción

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.1	2.5
	2.42	3.2	2.72
	2.33	3.36	2.8
				Watch
	2.75	3.4	2.25
	2.41	3.18	2.84	Watch
	2.04	3.18	3.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.02)	3.24 ↓ (3.25)	2.78 ↓ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Luis de Quillota
38.3%

Draw
28.5%

Deportes Concepción
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.6%

28.4%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

27.1%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Luis de Quillota has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that San Luis de Quillota's form might have worsened.

Deportes Concepción has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Deportes Concepción's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Luis de Quillota than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for San Luis de Quillota, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Concepción than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Deportes Concepción, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	14.3%	28.6%

San Luis de Quillota - Deportes Concepción Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. San Luis will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Deportes Concepción will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - San Luis (1.72) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): San Luis de Quillota will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. San Luis (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Garcia M. (C) 27. Aguila Bastias Y. M. 23. Albertengo G. 18. Avello G. 10. Cesped A. 5. Coronel F. 17. Flores F. 7. Juarez F. 19. Novero G. 16. Rodriguez A. 3. Sarria G.	25. Araya N. (G) 6. Astete N. 4. Caceres A. 24. Espinola J. 7. Gillard A. 32. Larrivey J. 8. Manzo F. 10. Nunez F. 23. Ojeda U. 5. Silva S. 20. Zambrano Diego
Substitutes
21. Araya J. 22. Bustos G. 39. Donoso M. 2. Navarrete J. 4. Osorio R. 14. Pastenes F. 1. Retamal D. (G)	9. Escobar C. 17. Fernandez C. 22. L’Huillier N. 14. Martinez S. 1. Munoz J. (G) 27. Sepulveda N. 11. Valdivia B.
Coaches
Munoz D.	Suarez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Gillard A. ⚽,
28', Rodriguez A. 🟨,
45+2', Flores F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
62', Rodriguez A. ↓, Araya J. ↑,
62', Albertengo G. ↓, Bustos G. ↑,
70', Larrivey J. ↓, Escobar C. ↑,
70', Valdivia B. ↓, Sepulveda N. ↑,
72', 0 - 2, Gillard A. ⚽,
74', Novero G. ↓, Donoso M. ↑,
80', Manzo F. ↓, Martinez S. ↑,
80', Gillard A. ↓, Fernandez C. ↑,
85', Cesped A. ↓, Navarrete J. ↑,
85', Ojeda U. ↓, Nunez F. ↑,
90+1', Nunez F. 🟨,
90+7', Aguila Bastias Y. M. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 10).

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Luis de Quillota
Chilean Cup
02.07.25	Deportes La Serena - San Luis de Quillota	4:1 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
21.06.25	San Luis de Quillota - Santiago Morning	0:0 ✺
16.06.25	Deportes Copiapó - San Luis de Quillota	3:0 ✺
Chilean Cup
06.06.25	San Luis de Quillota - Deportes La Serena	3:1 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
30.05.25	Deportes Recoleta - San Luis de Quillota	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LTLWL
- Deportes Concepción
Chilean Cup
02.07.25	Deportes Concepción - Huachipato	1:1 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
20.06.25	Unión San Felipe - Deportes Concepción	2:1 ✺
15.06.25	Deportes Concepción - Rangers de Talca	1:2 ✺
01.06.25	Deportes Concepción - Santiago Wanderers	0:0 ✺
24.05.25	Deportes Magallanes - Deportes Concepción	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TLLTT

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