Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 15

Date: 20 June 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Municipal de San Felipe (San Felipe)


	Unión San Felipe		Deportes Concepción

	1	X	2
	2.4	3	2.65
	2.54	3.1	2.83
				Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.75
	2.54	3.06	2.71	Watch
	2.25	3.35	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (2.12)	3.08 ↓ (3.55)	2.75 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Unión San Felipe
37.3%

Draw
29.6%

Deportes Concepción
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.5%

25.4%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

24.7%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Unión San Felipe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Unión San Felipe's form might have worsened.

Deportes Concepción has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión San Felipe than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Unión San Felipe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Concepción than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	16.7%	66.7%

Unión San Felipe - Deportes Concepción Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Unión San Felipe will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Deportes Concepción will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportes Concepción (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Garces P. (C) 23. Gonzalez Y. 3. Ulloa H. 4. Contreras S. 16. Navarro P. 7. Vergara S. 6. Gonzalez B. 10. Sagredo B. 5. Leon A. 17. Alvarez V. 19. Gonzalez D.	25. Araya N. (G) 17. Fernandez C. 5. Silva S. (C) 20. Zambrano Diego 22. L’Huillier N. 11. Valdivia B. 6. Astete N. 27. Sepulveda N. 23. Ojeda U. 18. Saavedra Saavedra F. I. 32. Larrivey J.
Substitutes
14. Cordova J. 1. Fuentes C. (G) 32. Henriquez O. 31. Herrera H. 9. Munoz C. 28. Olea M. 26. Rodriguez P.	4. Caceres A. 13. Cornejo F. 9. Escobar C. 7. Gillard A. 8. Manzo F. 1. Munoz J. 10. Nunez F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Gonzalez D. ⚽,
45+4', 2 - 0, Vergara S. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', L’Huillier N. ↓, Gillard A. ↑,
48', Garces P. 🟨,
66', Astete N. ↓, Caceres A. ↑,
71', Vergara S. ↓, Rodriguez P. ↑,
72', 2 - 1, Gillard A. ⚽,
76', Gonzalez D. ↓, Munoz C. ↑,
82', Alvarez V. ↓, Cordova J. ↑,
82', Sagredo B. ↓, Herrera H. ↑,
83', Fernandez C. ↓, Escobar C. ↑,
84', Leon A. 🟨,
90', Zambrano Diego 🟨,
90+1', Larrivey J. ↓, Nunez F. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Unión San Felipe has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Deportes Concepción has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Unión San Felipe may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Unión San Felipe won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Unión San Felipe won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Unión San Felipe
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
15.06.25	Santiago Morning - Unión San Felipe	2:1 ✺
07.06.25	Unión San Felipe - San Marcos de Arica	1:2 ✺
01.06.25	Deportes Santa Cruz - Unión San Felipe	1:1 ✺
25.05.25	Unión San Felipe - Universidad de Concepción	1:2 ✺
17.05.25	Unión San Felipe - Rangers de Talca	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLTLL
- Deportes Concepción
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
15.06.25	Deportes Concepción - Rangers de Talca	1:2 ✺
01.06.25	Deportes Concepción - Santiago Wanderers	0:0 ✺
24.05.25	Deportes Magallanes - Deportes Concepción	0:0 ✺
17.05.25	Deportes Concepción - San Marcos de Arica	1:0 ✺
Chilean Cup
11.05.25	Unión Española - Deportes Concepción	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
07.02.16	Unión San Felipe - Deportes Concepción	0:1
23.08.15	Deportes Concepción - Unión San Felipe	0:2
17.05.15	Unión San Felipe - Deportes Concepción	2:2
21.12.14	Deportes Concepción - Unión San Felipe	2:0
30.03.14	Unión San Felipe - Deportes Concepción	0:1

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