Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 4

Date: 26 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Urbano Caldeira (Santos)

Referee: Klein R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Flow Eventos
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 3
Mexico	Azteca Deportes
Paraguay	Flow Eventos
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Uruguay	Flow
World	Onefootball


	Santos		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.4	3.75	Watch
	2.1	3.4	3.4
	2.02	3.35	3.55	Watch
	2.12	3.56	3.67
	2.04	3.57	3.61	Watch
	2.05	3.25	3.3
	2.03	3.46	4.01	Watch
	2.1	3.6	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (2.17)	3.45 ↑ (3.41)	3.57 ↑ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
46%

Draw
27.5%

Vasco da Gama
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.1%

27.4%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

28%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.1%	10.7%	7.1%

Santos - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Santos (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Santos (1.28) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH +0.5 - Vasco (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Santos will win (22 of 26 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.75% – 98.49%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Santos will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Santos (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Vasco (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 18. Igor Vinicius 98. Frias A. 14. Luan Peres 3. Vinicius Lira 15. Willian Arao 49. Gabriel Bontempo 30. Miguelito 10. Neymar (C) 21. Moises 16. Thaciano	1. Leo Jardim (C) 96. Paulo Henrique 4. Saldivia A. 30. Robert Renan 6. Lucas Piton 88. Cauan Barros 23. Thiago Mendes 17. Moreira N. 29. Rojas J. 11. Andres Gomez 77. Spinelli C.
Substitutes
22. Barreal A. 19. Diaz L. 1. Diogenes (G) 31. Escobar G. 9. Gabriel Barbosa 25. Gabriel Menino 5. Joao Schmidt 12. Mayke 32. Rollheiser B. 11. Rony 2. Ze Ivaldo 6. Ze Rafael	28. Adson 20. Brenner 66. Cuiabano 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 7. David 18. Hinestroza M. 25. Hugo Moura 60. Joao Vitor 43. Lucas Freitas 9. Matheus Franca 2. Rodriguez J. 3. Tche Tche
Coaches
Vojvoda J.	Lazaroni B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
25', 1 - 0, Neymar ⚽, Moises (A),
29', Neymar 🟨,
29', Thiago Mendes 🟨,
43', 1 - 1, Cauan Barros ⚽, Andres Gomez (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Miguelito ↓, Barreal A. ↑,
60', Moises ↓, Rony ↑,
61', 2 - 1, Neymar ⚽,
70', Rojas J. ↓, Hinestroza M. ↑,
70', Moreira N. ↓, Brenner ↑,
70', Lucas Piton ↓, Cuiabano ↑,
75', Spinelli C. ↓, David ↑,
78', Willian Arao ↓, Joao Schmidt ↑,
78', Gabriel Bontempo ↓, Ze Rafael ↑,
84', Thaciano ↓, Gabriel Menino ↑,
84', Thiago Mendes ↓, Tche Tche ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Vasco may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Vasco has had a series of home games.

Santos is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Vasco: Cuiabano (Inactive) Jair (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Santos: Duarte A. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Santos won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 29:24. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Santos won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:14. (average 1.8:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Santos	29	11	9	9	45:43	2	42
14	Vasco	29	9	8	12	36:42	-6	35

Last Results with these Odds

Santos - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 43.08%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
22.02.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Santos	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Santos - Velo Clube	7:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Santos	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.26	EC Noroeste - Santos	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Santos - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWLWT
- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
22.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Volta Redonda	2:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Bahia	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
08.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
17.08.25	Santos - Vasco da Gama	0:6
30.03.25	Vasco da Gama - Santos	2:1
01.10.23	Santos - Vasco da Gama	4:1
14.05.23	Vasco da Gama - Santos	0:1
20.12.20	Vasco da Gama - Santos	1:0
02.09.20	Santos - Vasco da Gama	2:2
05.10.19	Vasco da Gama - Santos	0:1

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