Match Info

USL League One

Date: 1 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Premier Sports Campus (Lakewood Ranch, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Usa	SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+


	Sarasota Paradise		Naples

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	3.30	3.00
	2.07	3.20	3.10
	2.06	3.60	3.24
	2.09	3.6	3.18	Watch
	2.02	3.55	3.15
	2.03	3.38	3.19
	2.08	3.20	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (2.07)	3.4 ↑ (3.2)	3.13 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarasota Paradise
44.2%

Draw
26.7%

Naples
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

27.9%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

25.1%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarasota Paradise has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Naples has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarasota Paradise than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sarasota Paradise that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Naples than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Sarasota Paradise - Naples Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sutton A. (G) 6. Stretch C. 4. Watters D. (C) 5. Sogaard A. 36. Rosa A. 8. Walker A. 11. Karani S. 16. Rodriguez A. 7. Bryant E. 17. Bolanos J. 19. McLaughlin G.	1. Delgado L. (G) 8. Osorio J. 4. Uderitz H. 20. Yearwood J. 14. O'Connor K. 6. Ciss O. 21. Torrellas M. 3. Cisneros J. 23. Mesias A. 9. Miglietti G. 7. Gray T.
Substitutes
23. Amedeka R. (G) 50. Brulinski D. 51. Kend A. 18. Krueger B. 27. O'Dwyer C. 14. Pettersen J. 46. Roed S. 32. Terzaghi E. 3. Valentine R.	19. Arevalo W. 16. Bulai-Tudor A. 30. Cerro I. 12. Gay H. 17. Halterman T. (G) 31. Rose T. 2. Strumeier J. 22. Yoder J.

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 13 and 15).

In recent matches, Sarasota Paradise has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Naples has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Sarasota Paradise may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Naples has had a series of away games.

Sarasota Paradise could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Sarasota Paradise won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Sarasota Paradise won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	FC Naples	29	11	4	14	34:44	-10	37
12	Sarasota Paradise	28	9	6	13	39:43	-4	33

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarasota Paradise
USL Cup
11.07.26	Sarasota Paradise - Miami	0:5 ✺
USL League One
08.07.26	Greenville Triumph - Sarasota Paradise	0:0 ✺
03.07.26	Richmond Kickers - Sarasota Paradise	0:0 ✺
20.06.26	Corpus Christi - Sarasota Paradise	4:1 ✺
13.06.26	Sarasota Paradise - Union Omaha	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LTTLW
- FC Naples
USL League One
25.07.26	Forward Madison - Naples	3:1 ✺
USL Cup
11.07.26	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Naples	2:0 ✺
USL League One
08.07.26	New York Cosmos - Naples	1:0 ✺
03.07.26	Naples - Portland Hearts of Pine	2:3 ✺
20.06.26	Chattanooga Red Wolves - Naples	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

USL Cup
06.06.26	Naples - Sarasota Paradise	0:2
USL League One
11.04.26	Naples - Sarasota Paradise	2:0
US Open Cup
18.03.25	Sarasota Paradise - Naples	1:2

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