Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 - Round 25

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	TVG


	Sarriana		UD Ourense

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.25	2
	3.31	3.26	2.16
	3.21	3.28	2.12	Watch
	3.27	3.18	2.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.26 ↑ (2.79)	3.24 ↑ (3.06)	2.09 ↓ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarriana
28.1%

Draw
28.2%

UD Ourense
43.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.2%

29.4%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.3%

29.5%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarriana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

UD Ourense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting UD Ourense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarriana than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for UD Ourense than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for UD Ourense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Sarriana - UD Ourense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Gonzalez E. ⚽,
30', 2 - 0, Gonzalez E. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
75', 3 - 0, Sane A. ⚽,
80', 3 - 1, Zayzoun Y. ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation and 6).

Sarriana is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

UD Ourense has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

UD Ourense is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sarriana won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 2:10. (average 0.4:2).

Including home match between the teams, Sarriana won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Sarriana
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
22.02.26	Coruxo - Sarriana	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Sarriana - Gimnástica Segoviana	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Deportivo A Coruña B - Sarriana	2:1 ✺
01.02.26	Sarriana - Valladolid B	2:3 ✺
25.01.26	Burgos Promesas - Sarriana	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLLLW
- UD Ourense
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
22.02.26	UD Ourense - Rayo Cantabria	3:3 ✺
15.02.26	Numancia - UD Ourense	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	UD Ourense - Coruxo	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	UD Ourense - Burgos Promesas	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Valladolid B - UD Ourense	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
21.12.25	UD Ourense - Sarriana	1:0
Club Friendly
10.08.25	UD Ourense - Sarriana	5:0
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
21.12.24	UD Ourense - Sarriana	0:0
14.04.24	Sarriana - UD Ourense	1:2
26.11.23	UD Ourense - Sarriana	2:1

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