Match Info

PORTUGAL: Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 23

Date: 16 March 2025, Sunday


	Sertanense		Mortágua

	1	X	2
	3.45	3.25	1.98
	3.55	3.08	2.03
	3.45	3.25	1.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.48 ↑ (2.32)	3.19 ↓ (3.2)	2 ↓ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sertanense
26.1%

Draw
28.4%

Mortágua
45.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

28.4%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.9%

28.9%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sertanense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sertanense's form might have worsened.

Mortágua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mortágua's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sertanense than the current prediction. (+13.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sertanense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mortágua than the current prediction. (-13.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mortágua, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Sertanense - Mortágua Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
65', 0 - 1, Rianco J. ⚽,
70', 0 - 2, Cotel A. ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 in the zone Relegation and 8).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sertanense won 1.

Two teams are playing changeable.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Sertanense won 1 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9:9 (average 1.3:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Sertanense won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:5 (average 2:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sertanense
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
09.03.25	Arronches Benfica - Sertanense	1:0 ✺
02.03.25	Sertanense - Elvas	0:0 ✺
23.02.25	Fatima - Sertanense	1:1 ✺
16.02.25	Sertanense - Pero Pinheiro	1:0 ✺
09.02.25	Alverca B - Sertanense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.3 LTTWT
- Mortágua FC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
09.03.25	Mortágua - União de Coimbra	2:2 ✺
02.03.25	Marinhense - Mortágua	0:1 ✺
23.02.25	Mortágua - Peniche	0:0 ✺
16.02.25	SB Castelo Branco - Mortágua	1:1 ✺
09.02.25	Mortágua - Alcains	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 TWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
01.12.24	Mortágua - Sertanense	1:1
18.02.24	Mortágua - Sertanense	2:1
28.10.23	Sertanense - Mortágua	4:3
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
29.01.23	Sertanense - Mortágua	1:1
09.10.22	Mortágua - Sertanense	1:1
10.03.21	Mortágua - Sertanense	0:0
20.09.20	Sertanense - Mortágua	1:1

Sertanense - Mortágua: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide