Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 38

Date: 24 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Las Llanas (Sestao)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Sestao		Ponferradina

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.25	2.35
	2.65	3.1	2.37
	2.75	3.25	2.45
	2.78	3.25	2.36
	2.76	3.25	2.39	Watch
	2.76	3.26	2.38
	2.75	3.25	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↓ (2.88)	3.23 ↑ (3.15)	2.39 ↑ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sestao
33.5%

Draw
28.3%

Ponferradina
38.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.9%

29.2%

39%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

29.4%

38.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sestao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sestao than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Sestao - Ponferradina Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Herrerin I. (G) 2. Alvarez J. 4. Relu 5. Martinez G. 12. Barandalla M. 17. Samperio J. 6. Gomez A. 8. Garai G. (C) 15. Bustillo M. 18. Cordoba A. 9. Aznar D.	1. Prieto A. (G) 17. Carrique T. 4. Sibille K. 3. Novoa G. 19. Lopez A. 9. Cabanzon Y. 16. Lozano M. 22. Esquerdo V. 15. Bustos A. 21. Cortes J. 10. Valle B. (C)
Substitutes
23. Efremov A. 11. Etxaniz J. 22. Etxeberria M. 14. Garcia S. 1. Garrido J. (G) 10. Martinez Ortiz L. 30. Matar P. 21. Miranda A. 7. Planas A. 19. Rojo J.	2. Andujar D. 25. Barredo P. (G) 20. Costa A. 24. Doue M. 6. Fernandez B. 12. Ferrer P. 7. Gomez E. 13. Jimenez A. (G) 23. Jorrin M. 5. Lancho J. 11. Mula A. 18. Ramon A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Bustos A. ⚽,
21', 🟨,
30', 🟨,
45', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Samperio J. ↓, Garcia S. ↑,
78', Cortes J. ↓, Costa A. ↑,
78', Valle B. ↓, Ferrer P. ↑,
90+8', 0 - 2, Costa A. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 15 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Sestao won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Sestao won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sestao River
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
17.05.25	FC Andorra - Sestao	1:2 ✺
11.05.25	Sestao - Gimnástica Segoviana	1:2 ✺
04.05.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Sestao	0:0 ✺
27.04.25	Sestao - Ourense CF	2:2 ✺
19.04.25	Barakaldo - Sestao	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.2 WLTTW
- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
17.05.25	Ponferradina - Leonesa	2:1 ✺
11.05.25	Real Sociedad B - Ponferradina	3:2 ✺
03.05.25	Ponferradina - Athletic Bilbao B	2:0 ✺
27.04.25	Tarazona - Ponferradina	1:0 ✺
20.04.25	Ponferradina - Osasuna B	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
11.01.25	Ponferradina - Sestao	1:2
27.01.24	Ponferradina - Sestao	1:1
03.09.23	Sestao - Ponferradina	0:1

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