Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 30 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana (Kraków)

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Shakhtar Donetsk		Crystal Palace

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.5	1.85
	3.5	3.2	2
	4.5	3.4	1.9
	4.7	3.48	1.89
	4.38	3.44	1.95	Watch
	4.2	3.2	1.85
	4.48	3.49	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.32 ↑ (3.75)	3.39 ↓ (3.45)	1.9 ↓ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shakhtar Donetsk
22%

Draw
28%

Crystal Palace
50%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.6%

27.8%

46.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25%

28.5%

47.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shakhtar Donetsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Crystal Palace has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shakhtar Donetsk than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crystal Palace than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
24.1%	14.8%	61.1%

Shakhtar Donetsk - Crystal Palace Predictions

Users Predictions: 54 users predict this event. Shakhtar will win (votes: 13 - 24.1%). Crystal Palace will win (votes: 33 - 61.1%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 14.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Crystal Palace: 48.1% – 74.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

TQ, OT - Shakhtar (2.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Shakhtar (3.79) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Shakhtar (votes: 3 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Riznyk D. (G) 17. Tobias V. 5. Bondar V. 22. Matviienko M. (C) 13. Henrique P. 27. Ocheretko O. 30. Alisson 10. Pedrinho 6. Marlon Gomes 7. Eguinaldo 19. Kaua Elias	1. Henderson D. (C) 26. Richards C. 5. Lacroix M. 23. Canvot J. 2. Munoz D. 20. Wharton A. 18. Kamada D. 3. Mitchell T. 7. Sarr I. 14. Mateta J. 10. Pino Y.
Substitutes
16. Azarovi I. 21. Bondarenko A. 18. Ghram A. 14. Isaque Silva 49. Luca Meirelles 37. Lucas Ferreira 4. Marlon 29. Nazaryna Y. 11. Newerton 68. Obah P. 2. Traore L. 48. Tvardovskyi D. (G)	44. Benitez W. (G) 59. Cardines R. 17. Clyne N. 55. Devenny J. 19. Hughes W. 11. Johnson B. 22. Larsen J. S. 8. Lerma J. 31. Matthews R. (G) 34. Riad C. 24. Sosa B.
Coaches
Turan A.	Glasner O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
1', 0 - 1, Sarr I. ⚽, Mateta J. (A),
31', Ocheretko O. 🟨,
38', Tobias V. 🟨,
44', Pino Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
47', 1 - 1, Ocheretko O. ⚽, Kaua Elias (A),
52', Henrique P. 🟨,
56', Canvot J. 🟨,
58', 1 - 2, Kamada D. ⚽, Lacroix M. (A),
65', Mateta J. ↓, Larsen J. S. ↑,
65', Marlon Gomes ↓, Isaque Silva ↑,
73', Pino Y. ↓, Johnson B. ↑,
74', Pedrinho ↓, Bondarenko A. ↑,
74', Eguinaldo ↓, Newerton ↑,
83', Ocheretko O. ↓, Nazaryna Y. ↑,
83', Kaua Elias ↓, Traore L. ↑,
84', 1 - 3, Larsen J. S. ⚽, Kamada D. (A),
90', Kamada D. ↓, Lerma J. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Shakhtar is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Crystal Palace has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Crystal Palace may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Shakhtar has had a series of away games.

Crystal Palace will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Shakhtar: Kornienko V. (Inactive) Petryak I. (Inactive) Savchenko R. (Inactive) Udod D. (Injury)

There will not play in Crystal Palace: Doucoure C. (Knee Injury) Guessand E. (Injury) Nketiah E. (Thigh Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shakhtar Donetsk
Ukrainian Premier League
26.04.26	Kudrivka - Shakhtar Donetsk	1:3 ✺
23.04.26	Zorya Luhansk - Shakhtar Donetsk	1:2 ✺
20.04.26	Shakhtar Donetsk - Polissya Zhytomyr	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.04.26	AZ Alkmaar - Shakhtar Donetsk	2:2 ✺
Ukrainian Premier League
13.04.26	LNZ Cherkasy - Shakhtar Donetsk	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWWTT
- Crystal Palace
English Premier League
25.04.26	Liverpool - Crystal Palace	3:1 ✺
20.04.26	Crystal Palace - West Ham United	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.04.26	Fiorentina - Crystal Palace	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
12.04.26	Crystal Palace - Newcastle United	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
09.04.26	Crystal Palace - Fiorentina	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LTLWW

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