Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 April 2026, Thursday

Location: AFAS Stadion (Alkmaar)

Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	AZ Alkmaar		Shakhtar Donetsk

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.4	2.55
	2.52	3.55	2.68
	2.7	3.53	2.67
	2.76	3.6	2.56	Watch
	2.5	3.3	2.45
	2.6	3.44	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.43)	3.47 ↑ (3.36)	2.59 ↓ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AZ Alkmaar
36.2%

Draw
27.3%

Shakhtar Donetsk
36.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

28.3%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

29.6%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Shakhtar Donetsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shakhtar Donetsk than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Shakhtar Donetsk, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.3%	20%	26.7%

AZ Alkmaar - Shakhtar Donetsk Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. AZ will win (votes: 14 - 50%). Shakhtar will win (votes: 8 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 31.5% – 68.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Shakhtar (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Shakhtar (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - AZ (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. AZ (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Shakhtar (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Zoet J. (C) 18. Ichihara R. 4. Dekker M. 23. van Duijl B. 2. Maikuma S. 74. Boogaard K. 33. Sin M. 15. Chavez Garcia M. 7. Weslley Patati 35. Meerdink M. 11. Sadiq I.	31. Riznyk D. (G) 17. Tobias V. 5. Bondar V. 22. Matviienko M. (C) 13. Henrique P. 29. Nazaryna Y. 30. Alisson 27. Ocheretko O. 14. Isaque Silva 11. Newerton 19. Kaua Elias
Substitutes
22. Dijkstra E. 17. Jensen I. 45. Kovacs B. 46. Menu M. 10. Mijnans S. 24. Oufkir A. 1. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 9. Parrott T. 5. Penetra 56. Robbemond R. 26. Smit K. 12. Verhulst H. (G)	16. Azarovi I. 21. Bondarenko A. 7. Eguinaldo 18. Ghram A. 26. Konoplya Y. 49. Luca Meirelles 37. Lucas Ferreira 4. Marlon 6. Marlon Gomes 68. Obah P. 2. Traore L. 48. Tvardovskyi D. (G)
Coaches
Echteld L.	Turan A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Isaque Silva 🟨,
31', Chavez Garcia M. 🟨,
33', van Duijl B. 🟨,
35', Boogaard K. 🟨,
45+2', Sadiq I. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Chavez Garcia M. ↓, Jensen I. ↑,
46', Maikuma S. ↓, Oufkir A. ↑,
58', 0 - 1, Alisson ⚽, Kaua Elias (A),
61', Alisson ↓, Marlon Gomes ↑,
61', Isaque Silva ↓, Eguinaldo ↑,
63', Meerdink M. ↓, Kovacs B. ↑,
63', van Duijl B. ↓, Robbemond R. ↑,
70', Newerton ↓, Lucas Ferreira ↑,
70', Kaua Elias ↓, Luca Meirelles ↑,
71', Tobias V. 🟨,
71', Echteld L. 🟨,
73', 1 - 1, Jensen I. ⚽,
78', Eguinaldo 🟨,
80', 2 - 1, Sin M. ⚽, Kovacs B. (A),
83', 2 - 2, Luca Meirelles ⚽, Lucas Ferreira (A),
85', Matviienko M. 🟨,
88', Ocheretko O. ↓, Bondarenko A. ↑,
90+3', Weslley Patati ↓, Menu M. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 0-3. Second leg.

AZ has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Shakhtar is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Shakhtar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Shakhtar has had a series of home games.

AZ could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in AZ: Hornkamp J. (Injury) Kasius D. (Injury) Koopmeiners P. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Shakhtar: Kornienko V. (Inactive) Petryak I. (Inactive) Savchenko R. (Inactive) Sigeev K. (Inactive) Udod D. (Injury)

There are questionable in Shakhtar: Eguinaldo (Injury) Isaque Silva (Concussion) Kryskiv D. (Injury) Marlon Gomes (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, AZ won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:6. (average 1.5:3).

Including home match between the teams, AZ won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
12.04.26	AZ Alkmaar - Heerenveen	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
09.04.26	Shakhtar Donetsk - AZ Alkmaar	3:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
04.04.26	AZ Alkmaar - Fortuna Sittard	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Groningen - AZ Alkmaar	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	Sparta Prague - AZ Alkmaar	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWLW
- Shakhtar Donetsk
Ukrainian Premier League
13.04.26	LNZ Cherkasy - Shakhtar Donetsk	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
09.04.26	Shakhtar Donetsk - AZ Alkmaar	3:0 ✺
Ukrainian Premier League
05.04.26	Shakhtar Donetsk - Rukh Lviv	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	Shakhtar Donetsk - Lech Poznań	1:2 ✺
Ukrainian Premier League
15.03.26	Shakhtar Donetsk - Kharkiv	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
09.04.26	Shakhtar Donetsk - AZ Alkmaar	3:0
Club Friendly
08.07.23	AZ Alkmaar - Shakhtar Donetsk	3:3

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