Match Info

BRAZIL: Copa do Nordeste - Round 6

Date: 19 March 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estádio Antonio Mariz (Sousa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Premiere, SBT


	Sousa		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.6	1.65
	4.8	3.4	1.68
	4.9	3.45	1.65
	5.27	3.46	1.64
	5	3.3	1.67
	5.33	3.54	1.59	Watch
	4.9	3.45	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.99 ↓ (5.65)	3.46 ↓ (3.9)	1.65 ↑ (1.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sousa
18.3%

Draw
26.4%

Fortaleza
55.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.1%

23.3%

60.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.8%

22.8%

61.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sousa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fortaleza might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sousa than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fortaleza could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	16.7%	66.7%

Sousa - Fortaleza Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bruno Fuso (G) 11. Ian Augusto 2. Iranilson 26. Jackson 21. Joao Rafael 20. Luan Rodrigues 4. Marcelo 15. Patrik 8. Pedro Dias 19. Vinicius Silva 23. Wellisson	12. Brenno (G) 77. Andrade K. 36. Felipe Jonatan 5. Fernandez P. 39. Gustavo Mancha 14. Mancuso E. 21. Moises 79. Renato Kayzer 4. Titi (C) 22. Yago Pikachu 17. Ze Welison
Substitutes
28. Ciro 10. Dhonata 9. Diego Ceara 7. Elielton 16. Felipe Jacare 6. Fernando Ceara 30. Gabriel Souza (G) 13. Gustavinho 34. Gustavo Silva 5. Hebert 14. Uesles 17. Wellington Nunes	27. Borrero D. 41. Bruninho 10. Calebe 16. Diogo Barbosa 38. Lucca Prior 15. Magrao (G) 20. Matheus Rossetto 28. Pedro Augusto 7. Pochettino T. 30. Salvador 42. Wesley C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', Ian Augusto 🟨,
22', Gustavo Mancha 🟨,
26', Patrik 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Luan Rodrigues ⚽,
33', 1 - 1, Andrade K. ⚽,
37', Wellisson 🟨,
39', Felipe Jonatan 🟨,
43', Andrade K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', Renato Kayzer 🟨,
55', Titi 🟨,
57', 2 - 1, Luan Rodrigues ⚽,
60', 🟨,
62', Luan Rodrigues 🟨,
62', Vinicius Silva ↓, Wellington Nunes ↑,
63', Ze Welison ↓, Pochettino T. ↑,
63', Andrade K. ↓, Calebe ↑,
63', Renato Kayzer ↓, Wesley C. ↑,
73', Jackson ↓, Fernando Ceara ↑,
73', Luan Rodrigues ↓, Felipe Jacare ↑,
76', Wellisson 🟥,
76', 🟨,
77', 🟨,
80', Pedro Dias ↓, Hebert ↑,
82', Iranilson ↓, Uesles ↑,
82', Felipe Jonatan ↓, Lucca Prior ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 8 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa do Nordeste (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Sousa is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Fortaleza is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fortaleza could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Fortaleza have a series of home games.

In this match Fortaleza is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Sousa won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sousa
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
16.03.25	Sousa - Serra Branca	2:1 penalties ✺
09.03.25	Serra Branca - Sousa	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
05.03.25	Moto Club de São Luís - Sousa	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
27.02.25	Sousa - Red Bull Bragantino	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
22.02.25	Sousa - Botafogo PB	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WTLLL
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
15.03.25	Fortaleza - Ceará	0:1 ✺
08.03.25	Fortaleza - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
05.03.25	Fortaleza - Ferroviário Fortaleza	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
01.03.25	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
19.02.25	Fortaleza - Vitória Salvador	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
30.01.22	Fortaleza - Sousa	5:0

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