Match Info

Premier League - Round 30

Date: 2 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton)

Referee: Madley A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Southampton		Crystal Palace

	1	X	2
	5.5	4.1	1.6
	5.75	4.1	1.58
	5.5	4.15	1.65	Watch
	5.3	4.05	1.65
	5.59	4.12	1.63	Watch
	5.5	4	1.57
	5.5	4.33	1.63	Watch
	5.5	4.15	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.52 ↑ (5.29)	4.13 ↑ (4.03)	1.62 ↓ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southampton
17.4%

Draw
23.3%

Crystal Palace
59.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.2%

23.9%

58%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.6%

23.1%

60.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southampton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Crystal Palace has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crystal Palace than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.4%	8.1%	86.5%

Southampton - Crystal Palace Predictions

Users Predictions: Crystal Palace will win (95 of 108 users predict this - 87.96%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.82% – 94.1%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Ramsdale A. (G) 6. Harwood-Bellis T. 35. Bednarek J. 5. Stephens J. (C) 2. Walker-Peters K. 4. Downes F. 26. Ugochukwu L. 3. Manning R. 18. Fernandes M. 20. Sulemana K. 32. Onuachu P.	1. Henderson D. (G) 17. Clyne N. 5. Lacroix M. 6. Guehi M. (C) 12. Munoz D. 20. Wharton A. 8. Lerma J. 3. Mitchell T. 7. Sarr I. 10. Eze E. 14. Mateta J.
Substitutes
19. Archer C. 7. Aribo J. 37. Bella-Kotchap A. 14. Bree J. 33. Dibling T. 1. McCarthy A. (G) 16. Sugawara Y. 34. Welington 15. Wood N.	25. Chilwell B. 55. Devenny J. 21. Esse R. 18. Kamada D. 58. Kporha C. 11. Matheus Franca 9. Nketiah E. 30. Turner M. (G) 2. Ward J.
Coaches
Juric I.	Glasner O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', Wharton A. 🟨,
20', 1 - 0, Onuachu P. ⚽, Fernandes M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', Mitchell T. ↓, Chilwell B. ↑,
59', Clyne N. ↓, Kamada D. ↑,
59', Mateta J. ↓, Nketiah E. ↑,
64', Downes F. 🟨,
71', Ugochukwu L. ↓, Aribo J. ↑,
76', Munoz D. ↓, Matheus Franca ↑,
81', Manning R. ↓, Welington ↑,
81', Sulemana K. ↓, Dibling T. ↑,
86', Wharton A. ↓, Devenny J. ↑,
87', Bednarek J. 🟨,
89', Onuachu P. ↓, Sugawara Y. ↑,
90', Downes F. ↓, Archer C. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 1, Matheus Franca ⚽, Lerma J. (A),

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches S`hampton won 1.

S`hampton has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Crystal Palace is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

S`hampton could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Crystal Palace is a favorite.

There will not play in S`hampton: Fraser R. (Calf Injury) Smallbone W. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Crystal Palace: Doucoure C. (Knee Injury) Hughes W. (Yellow Cards) Riad C. (Knee Injury) Richards C. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in S`hampton: Larios J. (Lacking Match Fitness) Stewart R. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Crystal Palace: Ward J. (Calf Injury)

Our prediction for today's Crystal Palace to win the game is with odds 1.6.

Last 20 head-to-head matches S`hampton won 8 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 27:24 (average 1.4:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams S`hampton won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 17:13 (average 1.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southampton FC
English Premier League
15.03.25	Southampton - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:2 ✺
08.03.25	Liverpool - Southampton	3:1 ✺
25.02.25	Chelsea - Southampton	4:0 ✺
22.02.25	Southampton - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:4 ✺
15.02.25	Southampton - Bournemouth	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Crystal Palace
English FA Cup
29.03.25	Fulham - Crystal Palace	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
13.03.25	Hamarkameratene - Crystal Palace	0:1 ✺
English Premier League
08.03.25	Crystal Palace - Ipswich Town	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup
01.03.25	Crystal Palace - Millwall	3:1 ✺
English Premier League
25.02.25	Crystal Palace - Aston Villa	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
29.12.24	Crystal Palace - Southampton	2:1
15.04.23	Southampton - Crystal Palace	0:2
English FA Cup
07.01.23	Crystal Palace - Southampton	1:2
English Premier League
29.10.22	Crystal Palace - Southampton	1:0
30.04.22	Southampton - Crystal Palace	1:2
15.12.21	Crystal Palace - Southampton	2:2
11.05.21	Southampton - Crystal Palace	3:1

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