Match Info

ENGLAND: Premier League - Round 25

Date: 15 February 2025, Saturday

Location: St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton)

Referee: Gillett J. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Southampton		Bournemouth

	1	X	2
	6	4.5	1.48
	6	4.85	1.52	Watch
	5.98	4.84	1.52
	6.05	4.8	1.52	Watch
	6	4.8	1.44
	6.26	5.04	1.5	Watch
	6	4.85	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.04 ↑ (5.32)	4.81 ↑ (4.4)	1.5 ↓ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southampton
15.9%

Draw
20%

Bournemouth
64.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.1%

21.9%

60%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.7%

21.5%

61.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southampton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Bournemouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bournemouth than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	3.3%	81.3%

Southampton - Bournemouth Predictions

Users Predictions: Bournemouth will win (74 of 91 users predict this - 81.32%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.31% – 89.33%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Ramsdale A. (G) 14. Bree J. 35. Bednarek J. (C) 15. Wood N. 2. Walker-Peters K. 8. Smallbone W. 7. Aribo J. 34. Welington 18. Fernandes M. 32. Onuachu P. 20. Sulemana K.	13. Arrizabalaga K. (G) 4. Cook L. (C) 27. Zabarnyi I. 2. Huijsen D. 3. Kerkez M. 10. Christie R. 12. Adams T. 7. Brooks D. 19. Kluivert J. 24. Semenyo A. 11. Ouattara Da.
Substitutes
19. Archer C. 37. Bella-Kotchap A. 33. Dibling T. 29. Gronbaek A. 3. Manning R. 1. McCarthy A. (G) 16. Sugawara Y. 21. Taylor C. 26. Ugochukwu L.	45. Akinmboni M. 40. Dennis W. (G) 21. Jebbison D. 48. Kinsey-Wellings M. 51. Rees-Dottin R. 8. Scott A. 17. Sinisterra L. 16. Tavernier M. 47. Winterburn B.
Coaches
Juric I.	Iraola A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
8', Cook L. 🟨,
10', Smallbone W. 🟨,
14', 0 - 1, Ouattara Da. ⚽, Christie R. (A),
16', 0 - 2, Christie R. ⚽, Kluivert J. (A),
32', Semenyo A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Welington ↓, Sugawara Y. ↑,
46', Wood N. ↓, Ugochukwu L. ↑,
56', Smallbone W. ↓, Dibling T. ↑,
67', Brooks D. ↓, Tavernier M. ↑,
72', 1 - 2, Sulemana K. ⚽, Onuachu P. (A),
77', Kluivert J. ↓, Scott A. ↑,
78', Tavernier M. 🟨,
83', 1 - 3, Tavernier M. ⚽, Semenyo A. (A),
85', Aribo J. ↓, Manning R. ↑,
85', Sulemana K. ↓, Archer C. ↑,
88', Christie R. ↓, Sinisterra L. ↑,
88', Ouattara Da. ↓, Jebbison D. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 7).

Last 5 head-to-head matches S`hampton won 2.

S`hampton is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Bournemouth is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Bournemouth is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in S`hampton: Stewart R. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Bournemouth: Araujo J. (Thigh Injury) Evanilson (Foot Injury) Hill J. (Thigh Injury) Scott A. (Knee Injury) Senesi M. (Thigh Injury) Smith A. (Leg Injury) Soler J. (International duty) Unal E. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in S`hampton: Downes F. (Knock) Fraser R. (Injury) Harwood-Bellis T. (Ankle Injury) Lallana A. (Thigh Injury) Stephens J. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Bournemouth: Sinisterra L. (Thigh Injury)

Last 16 head-to-head matches S`hampton won 7 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 22:18 (average 1.4:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams S`hampton won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 10:11 (average 1.4:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southampton FC
English FA Cup
08.02.25	Southampton - Burnley	0:1 ✺
English Premier League
01.02.25	Ipswich Town - Southampton	1:2 ✺
25.01.25	Southampton - Newcastle United	1:3 ✺
19.01.25	Nottingham Forest - Southampton	3:2 ✺
16.01.25	Manchester United - Southampton	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWLLL
- AFC Bournemouth
English FA Cup
08.02.25	Everton - Bournemouth	0:2 ✺
English Premier League
01.02.25	Bournemouth - Liverpool	0:2 ✺
25.01.25	Bournemouth - Nottingham Forest	5:0 ✺
18.01.25	Newcastle United - Bournemouth	1:4 ✺
14.01.25	Chelsea - Bournemouth	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.8 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
30.09.24	Bournemouth - Southampton	3:1
Club Friendly
25.07.23	Southampton - Bournemouth	2:3
English Premier League
27.04.23	Southampton - Bournemouth	0:1
19.10.22	Bournemouth - Southampton	0:1
English FA Cup
20.03.21	Bournemouth - Southampton	0:3
English Premier League
19.07.20	Bournemouth - Southampton	0:2
20.09.19	Southampton - Bournemouth	1:3

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