Match Info

ENGLAND: Premier League - Round 25

Date: 15 February 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Gillett J. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, Showmax, SuperSport Grandstand ROA, SuperSport OTT 2
Armenia	19:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, TOD
Australia	02:00	Optus Sport
Brazil	12:00	Disney+
Bulgaria	17:00	Nova Sport
Canada	10:00	fubo Sports Network 4 DRM
China	23:00	iQIYI, Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	16:00	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Czech Republic	16:00	CANAL+ Sport 7
Denmark	16:00	Viaplay
Finland	17:00	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	16:00	Canal+ Live 9
Greece	17:00	Nova Sports Start
Hong Kong	23:00	M Plus Live, Now E, Now Player, NOW Premier League 5
Hungary	16:00	Match 4
Iceland	15:00	Siminn Sport 3
India	20:30	Disney+ Hotstar, Jiocinema, JioTV app
Indonesia	22:00	Vidio
Japan	00:00	U-NEXT
Malaysia	23:00	Astro Go, Astro Premier League 4, Sooka
Malta	16:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	09:00	HBO Max, MAX, TNT Go, TNT Sports
Netherlands	16:00	Viaplay
New Zealand	04:00	Sky Sport 4, Sky Sport NOW
Nigeria	16:00	SuperSport OTT 2
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	16:00	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 4
Poland	16:00	Viaplay
Romania	17:00	Prima Sport PPV 3
Serbia	16:00	Arena Sport 7
Singapore	23:00	Hub Premier 4, StarHub TV+
South Africa	17:00	SuperSport OTT 2
South Korea	00:00	SPOTV Now
Spain	16:00	DAZN 4 Espana, DAZN Espana
Sweden	16:00	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Thailand	22:00	True Premier Football 5
Turkey	18:00	beIN Connect
Usa	10:00	Peacock TV Premium, Peacock TV, SiriusXM FC
Vietnam	22:00	ON Plus
International	15:00	Disney+


	Southampton		Bournemouth

	1	X	2
	6	4.5	1.48
	6	4.85	1.52	Watch
	5.98	4.84	1.52
	6.05	4.8	1.52	Watch
	6	4.8	1.44
	6.26	5.04	1.5	Watch
	6	4.85	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.04 ↑ (5.32)	4.81 ↑ (4.4)	1.5 ↓ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southampton
15.9%

Draw
20%

Bournemouth
64.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

18.1%

21.9%

60%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.7%

21.5%

61.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southampton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Bournemouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bournemouth than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	3.3%	81.3%

Southampton - Bournemouth Predictions

Users Predictions: Bournemouth will win (74 of 91 users predict this - 81.32%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.31% – 89.33%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Ramsdale A. (G) 14. Bree J. 35. Bednarek J. (C) 15. Wood N. 2. Walker-Peters K. 8. Smallbone W. 7. Aribo J. 34. Welington 18. Fernandes M. 32. Onuachu P. 20. Sulemana K.	13. Arrizabalaga K. (G) 4. Cook L. (C) 27. Zabarnyi I. 2. Huijsen D. 3. Kerkez M. 10. Christie R. 12. Adams T. 7. Brooks D. 19. Kluivert J. 24. Semenyo A. 11. Ouattara Da.
Substitutes
19. Archer C. 37. Bella-Kotchap A. 33. Dibling T. 29. Gronbaek A. 3. Manning R. 1. McCarthy A. (G) 16. Sugawara Y. 21. Taylor C. 26. Ugochukwu L.	45. Akinmboni M. 40. Dennis W. (G) 21. Jebbison D. 48. Kinsey-Wellings M. 51. Rees-Dottin R. 8. Scott A. 17. Sinisterra L. 16. Tavernier M. 47. Winterburn B.
Coaches
Juric I.	Iraola A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
8', Cook L. 🟨,
10', Smallbone W. 🟨,
14', 0 - 1, Ouattara Da. ⚽, Christie R. (A),
16', 0 - 2, Christie R. ⚽, Kluivert J. (A),
32', Semenyo A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Welington ↓, Sugawara Y. ↑,
46', Wood N. ↓, Ugochukwu L. ↑,
56', Smallbone W. ↓, Dibling T. ↑,
67', Brooks D. ↓, Tavernier M. ↑,
72', 1 - 2, Sulemana K. ⚽, Onuachu P. (A),
77', Kluivert J. ↓, Scott A. ↑,
78', Tavernier M. 🟨,
83', 1 - 3, Tavernier M. ⚽, Semenyo A. (A),
85', Aribo J. ↓, Manning R. ↑,
85', Sulemana K. ↓, Archer C. ↑,
88', Christie R. ↓, Sinisterra L. ↑,
88', Ouattara Da. ↓, Jebbison D. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 7).

Last 5 head-to-head matches S`hampton won 2.

S`hampton is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Bournemouth is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Bournemouth is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in S`hampton: Stewart R. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Bournemouth: Araujo J. (Thigh Injury) Evanilson (Foot Injury) Hill J. (Thigh Injury) Scott A. (Knee Injury) Senesi M. (Thigh Injury) Smith A. (Leg Injury) Soler J. (International duty) Unal E. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in S`hampton: Downes F. (Knock) Fraser R. (Injury) Harwood-Bellis T. (Ankle Injury) Lallana A. (Thigh Injury) Stephens J. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Bournemouth: Sinisterra L. (Thigh Injury)

Last 16 head-to-head matches S`hampton won 7 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 22:18 (average 1.4:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams S`hampton won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 10:11 (average 1.4:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southampton FC
English FA Cup
08.02.25	Southampton - Burnley	0:1 ✺
English Premier League
01.02.25	Ipswich Town - Southampton	1:2 ✺
25.01.25	Southampton - Newcastle United	1:3 ✺
19.01.25	Nottingham Forest - Southampton	3:2 ✺
16.01.25	Manchester United - Southampton	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWLLL
- AFC Bournemouth
English FA Cup
08.02.25	Everton - Bournemouth	0:2 ✺
English Premier League
01.02.25	Bournemouth - Liverpool	0:2 ✺
25.01.25	Bournemouth - Nottingham Forest	5:0 ✺
18.01.25	Newcastle United - Bournemouth	1:4 ✺
14.01.25	Chelsea - Bournemouth	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.8 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
30.09.24	Bournemouth - Southampton	3:1
Club Friendly
25.07.23	Southampton - Bournemouth	2:3
English Premier League
27.04.23	Southampton - Bournemouth	0:1
19.10.22	Bournemouth - Southampton	0:1
English FA Cup
20.03.21	Bournemouth - Southampton	0:3
English Premier League
19.07.20	Bournemouth - Southampton	0:2
20.09.19	Southampton - Bournemouth	1:3

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