Match Info

Championship - Round 42

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton)

Referee: Kitchen A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
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	Southampton		Derby County

	1	X	2
	1.56	4.1	5	Watch
	1.63	3.93	5.39	Watch
	1.61	4.21	5.63
	1.65	4.13	4.86	Watch
	1.6	3.8	5
	1.66	4.25	5.18	Watch
	1.8	3.8	4.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.77)	4.03 ↑ (3.8)	5.04 ↑ (4.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southampton
57.7%

Draw
23.5%

Derby County
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.7%

24.5%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55%

23.5%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southampton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	11.1%	5.6%

Southampton - Derby County Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. S`hampton (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Southampton will win (15 of 18 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.11% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Peretz D. (G) 14. Bree J. 6. Harwood-Bellis T. 5. Stephens J. (C) 3. Manning R. 4. Downes F. 20. Jander C. 18. Fellows T. 10. Azaz F. 13. Scienza L. 11. Stewart R.	12. O'Donnell R. (G) 23. Ward J. 28. Sanderson D. 5. Clarke M. 22. Johnston M. 27. Travis L. (C) 18. Ozoh D. 34. Banel J. 19. Szmodics S. 42. Clark B. 9. Morris C.
Substitutes
19. Archer C. 48. Bragg C. 24. Charles S. 23. Edozie S. 9. Larin C. 25. Long G. (G) 27. Matsuki K. 34. Welington 15. Wood N.	54. Allen C. 4. Batth D. 37. Eames O. 3. Forsyth C. 29. Fraulo O. 44. Gordon I. 6. Langas S. 15. Salvesen L. 31. Vickers J. (G)
Coaches
Eckert T.	Eustace J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', Clark B. ↓, Fraulo O. ↑,
38', 0 - 1, Morris C. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
53', Sanderson D. 🟨,
55', Fraulo O. 🟨,
62', 1 - 1, Scienza L. ⚽, Azaz F. (A),
64', Stewart R. ↓, Larin C. ↑,
64', Fellows T. ↓, Matsuki K. ↑,
66', Banel J. ↓, Eames O. ↑,
67', Ozoh D. ↓, Langas S. ↑,
67', Johnston M. ↓, Forsyth C. ↑,
69', 2 - 1, Harwood-Bellis T. ⚽, Manning R. (A),
75', Scienza L. ↓, Edozie S. ↑,
75', Azaz F. ↓, Charles S. ↑,
84', Travis L. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
87', Bree J. ↓, Wood N. ↑,
90+3', Larin C. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 8).

S`hampton is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Derby has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Derby may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, S`hampton is the team to beat.

There will not play in S`hampton: Roerslev Rasmussen M. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Derby: Szmodics S. (Injury) Vickers J. (Groin Injury) Widell Zetterstrom J. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Derby: Elder C. (Toe Injury)

We predict that S`hampton will win today's game, with odds of 1.78.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, S`hampton won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, S`hampton won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 3:1.5).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Southampton: 9.9% Derby: 0.7%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Southampton	8	4	2	2	19:10	9	10
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	8:15	-7	6

Last Results with these Odds

Southampton - the odds 1.77 are the expected chance of winning is 52.67%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southampton FC
English League Championship
07.04.26	Wrexham - Southampton	1:5 ✺
English FA Cup
04.04.26	Southampton - Arsenal	2:1 ✺
English League Championship
21.03.26	Southampton - Oxford United	2:0 ✺
18.03.26	Southampton - Norwich City	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Coventry City - Southampton	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 36.5 WWWWW
- Derby County
English League Championship
06.04.26	Derby County - Stoke City	2:0 ✺
03.04.26	Coventry City - Derby County	3:2 ✺
21.03.26	Derby County - Birmingham City	1:0 ✺
16.03.26	Portsmouth - Derby County	0:1 ✺
10.03.26	Millwall - Derby County	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
04.10.25	Derby County - Southampton	1:1
English FA Cup
16.01.19	Southampton - Derby County	2:3 penalties
05.01.19	Derby County - Southampton	2:2
Club Friendly
21.07.18	Derby County - Southampton	3:0
English League Championship
18.02.12	Southampton - Derby County	4:0

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