Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 31

Date: 1 April 2024, Monday

Location: Stadio Alberto Picco (La Spezia)

Referee: Sozza S. (Ita)


	Spezia		Ascoli

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.3	3.8	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.6
	2.1	3.1	3.75	Watch
	2.13	3.21	4.02
	2.11	3.21	4.03
	2.05	3.2	3.6
	2.08	3.22	3.84	Watch
	2.07	3.15	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↓ (2.14)	3.19 ↑ (3.17)	3.79 ↑ (3.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spezia
45.4%

Draw
29.7%

Ascoli
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.1%

29.8%

26.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.8%

31.6%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spezia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Ascoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ascoli than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	35.7%	7.1%

Spezia - Ascoli Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Spezia will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Ascoli will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Spezia: 31.2% – 83%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zoet J. (G) 14. Vignali L. 55. Hristov P. 43. Nikolaou D. 37. Mateju A. 8. Nagy A. 10. Esposito Sa. 25. Bandinelli F. 7. Elia S. 99. Verde D. 16. Falcinelli D.	32. Vasquez Llach D. S. (G) 16. Vaisanen S. 55. Bellusci G. 3. Mantovani V. 13. Celia R. 73. Masini P. 18. Di Tacchio F. 8. Giovane S. 7. Zedadka K. 11. Streng J. 99. Rodriguez P.
Substitutes
77. Bertola N. 36. Candelari P. 21. Corradini G. 26. Cugnata C. 9. Esposito F. 33. Gelashvili I. 97. Jagiello F. 80. Kouda R. 24. Moro L. 15. Pietra N. 5. Tanco G. J. 40. Zovko P. (G)	17. Adjapong C. 40. Bayeye B. J. 12. Bolletta L. (G) 10. Caligara F. 15. D'Uffizi S. 29. Duris D. 94. Maiga Silvestri Y. 20. Milanese T. 14. Quaranta D. 44. Tavcar A. 41. Valzania L. 2. Viviano E. (G)
Coaches
D'Angelo L.	Carrera M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', 1 - 0, Vignali L. ⚽, Elia S. (A),
17', Streng J. 🟨,
24', 1 - 1, Rodriguez P. ⚽, Di Tacchio F. (A),
32', Nagy A. 🟨,
35', Vaisanen S. ↓, Quaranta D. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', 2 - 1, Hristov P. ⚽,
60', Celia R. ↓, Bayeye B. J. ↑,
61', Streng J. ↓, Caligara F. ↑,
61', Giovane S. ↓, Duris D. ↑,
75', Masini P. ↓, D'Uffizi S. ↑,
78', Verde D. ↓, Esposito F. ↑,
86', Falcinelli D. ↓, Jagiello F. ↑,
87', Elia S. ↓, Tanco G. J. ↑,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 17 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Spezia won 3.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Spezia will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Spezia won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 20-25.

Including matches at home between the teams Spezia won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 13-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie B
16.03.24	Reggiana - Spezia	0:0 ✺
09.03.24	Spezia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	2:1 ✺
03.03.24	Bari - Spezia	1:1 ✺
28.02.24	Spezia - FeralpiSalò	0:2 ✺
25.02.24	Modena - Spezia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TWTLT
- Ascoli Calcio
Italian Serie B
17.03.24	Ascoli - Lecco	4:1 ✺
11.03.24	Sampdoria - Ascoli	2:1 ✺
03.03.24	Ascoli - Reggiana	0:0 ✺
27.02.24	Ascoli - Brescia	1:1 ✺
24.02.24	FeralpiSalò - Ascoli	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
09.12.23	Ascoli - Spezia	1:2
15.02.20	Spezia - Ascoli	3:1
24.09.19	Ascoli - Spezia	3:0
Club Friendly
27.07.19	Ascoli - Spezia	2:1
Italian Serie B
14.04.19	Spezia - Ascoli	3:2
01.12.18	Ascoli - Spezia	3:1
24.03.18	Spezia - Ascoli	1:1

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