Match Info

Serie B - Round 35

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Alberto Picco (La Spezia)

Referee: Abisso R. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Spezia		Südtirol-Alto Adige

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.2	3.25	Watch
	2.25	3.15	3.1	Watch
	2.32	3.25	3.53
	2.38	3.23	3	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3.1
	2.25	3.27	3.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↓ (2.28)	3.2 ↑ (3.13)	3.22 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spezia
41.4%

Draw
29.4%

Südtirol-Alto Adige
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.2%

29.2%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.1%

26.2%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spezia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Südtirol-Alto Adige has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Spezia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Südtirol-Alto Adige than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	55.6%	22.2%

Spezia - Südtirol Alto Adige Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Spezia will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Südtirol will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - draw (1.35) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Mascardi D. (G) 37. Mateju A. 55. Hristov P. (C) 31. Aurelio G. 17. Sernicola L. 25. Bandinelli F. 60. Romano A. 5. Valoti M. 11. Beruatto P. 20. Di Serio G. 10. Lapadula G.	31. Adamonis M. (G) 23. Davi F. 19. Pietrangeli N. 34. Veseli F. 79. Molina S. 6. Martini J. 89. Crnigoj D. 26. Frigerio M. R. 7. Zedadka K. 9. Pecorino E. 33. Merkaj S. (C)
Substitutes
70. Adamo E. 6. Bellemo A. 24. Bertoncini A. 34. Comotto C. 77. Lorenzelli E. 16. Loria L. (G) 8. Nagy A. 22. Radunovic B. (G) 4. Ruggero M. 19. Shagaxle H. 90. Skjellerup L. 32. Vignali L.	3. Bordon F. 1. Borra D. (G) 17. Casiraghi D. 24. Davi S. 4. Mancini D. 5. Masiello A. 90. Odogwu R. 21. Tait F. 62. Theiner D. (G) 11. Tonin R. 18. Tronchin S. 99. Verdi S.
Coaches
D'Angelo L.	Castori F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Valoti M. (Penalty Awarded),
20', 1 - 1, Pecorino E. ⚽, Frigerio M. R. (A),
23', Zedadka K. 🟥,
25', 2 - 1, Di Serio G. ⚽,
26', Bandinelli F. ↓, Comotto C. ↑,
28', Crnigoj D. ↓, Davi S. ↑,
30', Merkaj S. 🟨,
33', 3 - 1, Beruatto P. ⚽, Valoti M. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Di Serio G. ↓, Nagy A. ↑,
46', Pecorino E. ↓, Casiraghi D. ↑,
46', Martini J. ↓, Tait F. ↑,
61', Merkaj S. ↓, Odogwu R. ↑,
70', 4 - 1, Lapadula G. ⚽, Beruatto P. (A),
73', 5 - 1, Sernicola L. ⚽,
74', Sernicola L. ↓, Vignali L. ↑,
74', Romano A. ↓, Bellemo A. ↑,
77', Frigerio M. R. ↓, Bordon F. ↑,
82', 6 - 1, Aurelio G. ⚽, Valoti M. (A),
83', Valoti M. ↓, Lorenzelli E. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 10).

Spezia is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Südtirol's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Spezia: Cassata F. (Muscle Injury) Sarr M. (Ankle Injury) Skjellerup L. (Inactive) Zurkowski S. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Südtirol: Cragno A. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Kofler R. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Südtirol: Tronchin S. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:7. (average 2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Spezia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Outrights of Italian Serie B for now

Sudtirol: 2.03%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Sudtirol	6	3	3	0	9:3	6	12

Last Results with these Odds

Südtirol-Alto Adige - the odds 3 are the expected chance of winning is 30.53%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie B
12.04.26	Spezia - Mantova	0:2 ✺
06.04.26	Carrarese - Spezia	3:1 ✺
21.03.26	Juve Stabia - Spezia	3:1 ✺
17.03.26	Spezia - Empoli	1:1 ✺
13.03.26	Modena - Spezia	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLTL
- Südtirol-Alto Adige
Italian Serie B
11.04.26	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Modena	1:1 ✺
06.04.26	Cesena - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Frosinone	1:3 ✺
18.03.26	Avellino - Südtirol-Alto Adige	3:2 ✺
15.03.26	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Pescara	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
10.01.26	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Spezia	2:1
28.02.25	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Spezia	1:1
24.11.24	Spezia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	3:0
09.03.24	Spezia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	2:1
20.08.23	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Spezia	3:3

Spezia - Südtirol-Alto Adige: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide