Match Info

Serie B - Round 24

Date: 11 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stadio San Nicola (Bari)

Referee: Doveri D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
Slovenia	Sport TV3
Switzerland	Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4
United-kingdom	DCTV
Usa	DCTV
World	Onefootball


	Bari		Spezia

	1	X	2
	2.82	2.75	2.7	Watch
	2.45	3.1	2.95
	2.98	2.82	2.52	Watch
	3.05	2.87	2.83
	2.97	2.98	2.56	Watch
	2.9	2.7	2.7
	2.95	2.85	2.75	Watch
	3	2.75	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↑ (2.43)	2.85 ↓ (3.12)	2.72 ↓ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bari
32.5%

Draw
32.9%

Spezia
34.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

29.6%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

28.9%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bari's form might have worsened.

Spezia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bari than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bari, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.8%	63.2%	21.1%

Bari - Spezia Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Bari will win (votes: 3 - 15.8%). Spezia will win (votes: 4 - 21.1%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 63.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 41.5% – 84.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 5 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Spezia (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Bari (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Bari (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Spezia (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Cerofolini M. (G) 25. Pucino R. (C) 26. Odenthal C. 51. Cistana A. 20. Cavuoti N. 66. Traore D. 29. Verreth M. 93. Dorval M. 90. Cuni M. 28. Piscopo K. 11. Moncini G.	22. Radunovic B. (G) 37. Mateju A. 55. Hristov P. (C) 94. Bonfanti G. 6. Bellemo A. 34. Comotto C. 60. Romano A. 31. Aurelio G. 32. Vignali L. 90. Skjellerup L. 9. Artistico G.
Substitutes
10. Bellomo N. 27. Braunoder M. 3. Burgio R. 19. Esteves T. 9. Gytkjaer C. 18. Maggiore G. 30. Mane M. 13. Mantovani V. 8. Pagano R. 1. Pissardo M. (G) 17. Rao E. 37. Stabile G.	70. Adamo E. 24. Bertoncini A. 11. Beruatto P. 20. Di Serio G. 77. Lorenzelli E. 16. Loria L. (G) 12. Mascardi D. (G) 8. Nagy A. 4. Ruggero M. 17. Sernicola L. 5. Valoti M. 99. Vlahovic V.
Coaches
Longo M.	Donadoni R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Bonfanti G. 🟨,
25', Verreth M. ↓, Braunoder M. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Bonfanti G. ↓, Beruatto P. ↑,
58', Skjellerup L. ↓, Di Serio G. ↑,
66', Cavuoti N. ↓, Rao E. ↑,
71', Vignali L. ↓, Sernicola L. ↑,
71', Bellemo A. ↓, Valoti M. ↑,
77', Odenthal C. ↓, Mantovani V. ↑,
77', Traore D. ↓, Esteves T. ↑,
77', Cuni M. ↓, Pagano R. ↑,
90', Comotto C. ↓, Adamo E. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 18 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bari won 1.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Spezia will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Bari: Artioli F. (Inactive) Burgio R. (Inactive) Darboe E. (Thigh Injury) Nikolaou D. (Muscle Injury) Partipilo A. (Inactive) Sibilli G. (Suspended)

There will not play in Spezia: Bandinelli F. (Injury) Cassata F. (Muscle Injury) Lapadula G. (Inactive) Sarr M. (Ankle Injury) Zurkowski S. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Bari: Odenthal C. (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Bari won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 15:22. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Bari won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Bari - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 37.87%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Spezia - the odds 2.83 are the expected chance of winning is 32.56%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Bari
Italian Serie B
07.02.26	Mantova - Bari	2:1 ✺
30.01.26	Bari - Palermo	0:3 ✺
24.01.26	Cesena - Bari	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Bari - Juve Stabia	0:1 ✺
10.01.26	Carrarese - Bari	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LLWLL
- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie B
07.02.26	Spezia - Virtus Entella	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Sampdoria - Spezia	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Spezia - Avellino	1:0 ✺
18.01.26	Palermo - Spezia	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Spezia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
07.11.25	Spezia - Bari	1:1
29.12.24	Bari - Spezia	2:0
25.10.24	Spezia - Bari	0:0
03.03.24	Bari - Spezia	1:1
15.12.23	Spezia - Bari	1:0
13.03.18	Bari - Spezia	1:1
30.09.17	Spezia - Bari	1:0

Bari - Spezia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide