The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Spezia 11.4%
Draw 19.2%
Napoli 69.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
12.9%
20.1%
67%
Our Initial ML Estimation
12.5%
19.5%
69%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)
Napoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+1.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (-0.3%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
9.3%
0%
90.7%
Spezia - Napoli Predictions
Users Predictions:
Napoli will win
(68 of 75 users predict this - 90.67%). Confidence interval (95%): 84.09% โ 97.25%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2
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Preview
This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 17 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Group Stage)).
Spezia has the most likely position - 18 (21.3%), has project points - 35, has currently - 18, has a chance of relegated (38%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Napoli has the most likely position - 1 (92.34%), has project points - 90, has currently - 53, has not chance of relegated, has a very good chance of qualify for ucl (>99%), has a good chance of win league (92%).
This event has quality61, importance42, match rating51. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Spezia won 1.
Spezia is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Napoli is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
Napoli could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
In this match Napoli is the unquestionable favorite.
Last 7 head-to-head matches Spezia won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 7-16.
Including matches at home between the teams Spezia won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-7.
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