Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Nacional de Lima (Lima)

Referee: Herrera D. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Paramount+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 5
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	ESPN
Georgia	Silk Universal
Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+
Greece	ERT Sports 2
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 3
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Polsat Sport 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Suriname	SCCN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	Onefootball


	Sporting Cristal		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	6.25	4.2	1.5	Watch
	4.5	3.6	1.73
	5.9	3.95	1.55	Watch
	6.27	4.13	1.54
	6.27	4.21	1.52	Watch
	6	3.8	1.5
	6.48	4.17	1.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.95 ↑ (4.46)	4.01 ↑ (3.4)	1.55 ↓ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Cristal
15.8%

Draw
23.5%

Palmeiras
60.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.9%

27.5%

51.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.4%

26.9%

52.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Cristal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sporting Cristal's form might have worsened.

Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Palmeiras's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Cristal than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Palmeiras, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	0%	84.6%

Sporting Cristal - Palmeiras Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Sporting Cristal (5.25) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Palmeiras will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting Cristal (votes: 2 - 50%). Palmeiras (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Enriquez D. (G) 8. Sosa L. 20. Araujo M. 5. Lutiger R. 90. Cristiano 25. Tavara M. 19. Yotun Y. (C) 7. Gonzalez S. 16. Iberico L. 23. Castro M. 11. Avila I.	1. Carlos Miguel (G) 4. Giay A. 15. Gomez G. (C) 26. Murilo 56. Arthur Gabriel 8. Andreas Pereira 17. Marlon Freitas 40. Allan Elias 19. Sosa R. 11. Arias J. 42. Lopez J.
Substitutes
96. Abram L. 33. Bautista C. (G) 14. Benavente C. 21. Cabellos C. 41. Cuenca J. 27. Gabriel 18. Gonzalez J. 46. Lara J. 28. Otoya D. 15. Posito Olazabal A. J. 9. Vizeu F. 26. Wisdom I.	43. Benedetti 3. Bruno Fuchs 45. Erick Bele 7. Felipe Anderson 6. Jefte 12. Khellven 30. Lucas Evangelista 50. Luis Pacheco 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 32. Martinez E. 18. Mauricio 10. Paulinho
Coaches
Ze Ricardo	Abel Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', Gomez G. 🟨,
30', Avila I. 🟨,
32', 0 - 1, Lopez J. ⚽, Arias J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', Tavara M. 🟨,
50', 0 - 2, Sosa R. ⚽,
57', Avila I. ↓, Vizeu F. ↑,
58', Iberico L. ↓, Gabriel ↑,
66', Gonzalez S. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
73', Arias J. ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
73', Sosa R. ↓, Jefte ↑,
73', Arthur Gabriel ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
76', Giay A. 🟨,
81', Andreas Pereira ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
81', Tavara M. ↓, Cabellos C. ↑,
81', Sosa L. ↓, Wisdom I. ↑,
89', Lopez J. ↓, Paulinho ↑,

Preview

Sporting Cristal has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Palmeiras is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Palmeiras is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Sporting Cristal: Cazonatti G. (Yellow Cards) Gonzalez S. (Yellow Cards) Solis R. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Palmeiras: Piquerez J. (Knee Injury) Vitor Roque (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Sporting Cristal: Gonzales C. (Knee Injury) Wisdom I. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting Cristal won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:13. (average 1:2.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Sporting Cristal won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Palmeiras: 17.4%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Cristal
Peruvian Liga 1
03.05.26	Sporting Cristal - Cusco	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.04.26	Sporting Cristal - Junior Barranquilla	2:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
25.04.26	Comerciantes Unidos - Sporting Cristal	1:0 ✺
22.04.26	Atlético Grau - Sporting Cristal	4:1 ✺
19.04.26	Sporting Cristal - Cajamarca	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TWLLW
- Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.26	Palmeiras - Santos	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.04.26	Cerro Porteño - Palmeiras	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
23.04.26	Palmeiras - Jacuipense	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.04.26	Palmeiras - Athletico Paranaense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
16.04.26	Palmeiras - Sporting Cristal	2:1
28.05.25	Palmeiras - Sporting Cristal	6:0
03.04.25	Sporting Cristal - Palmeiras	2:3
18.04.13	Sporting Cristal - Palmeiras	1:0
14.02.13	Palmeiras - Sporting Cristal	2:1

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