What is the expert prediction for Sporting Cristal vs Cerro Porteño?

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Sporting Cristal vs Cerro Porteño Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Wednesday, April 08, 2026)

Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 8 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Nacional de Lima (Lima)

Referee: Herrera D. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Bolivia	ESPN 2, ESPN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN
Spain	LaLiga+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter


	Sporting Cristal		Cerro Porteño

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.2	3.1	Watch
	2.37	3.2	2.95
	2.52	2.98	2.98	Watch
	2.49	3.07	3.11
	2.47	3.12	3.05	Watch
	2.38	2.9	3	Watch
	2.5	3.12	3.12	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (2.42)	3.08 ↓ (3.16)	3.04 ↓ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Cristal
38.5%

Draw
30.5%

Cerro Porteño
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

29.9%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

30.6%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Cristal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Cerro Porteño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Cristal than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro Porteño than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	55.6%	11.1%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Sporting Cristal will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Cerro Porteño will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Enriquez D. (G) 8. Sosa L. 20. Araujo M. 5. Lutiger R. 90. Cristiano 18. Gonzalez J. 55. Cazonatti G. 25. Tavara M. 23. Castro M. 11. Avila I. (C) 16. Iberico L.	1. Martin A. (G) 23. Velazquez G. (C) 14. Quintana Rodriguez L. A. 5. Morel J. 35. Chaparro M. 26. Piris R. 8. Paredes C. 10. Dominguez C. 7. Sonora A. 27. Torres J. 19. Vegetti P.
Substitutes
96. Abram L. 33. Bautista C. (G) 14. Benavente C. 21. Cabellos C. 44. Castillo G. 41. Cuenca J. 7. Gonzalez S. 15. Posito Olazabal A. J. 97. Rodriguez M. 9. Vizeu F. 26. Wisdom I. 19. Yotun Y.	13. Benitez A. G. 32. Bobadilla C. 25. Fernandez R. (G) 33. Gomez R. 11. Iturbe J. 40. Klimowicz M. 6. Luciatti A. 18. Melgarejo R. 24. Paez E. 16. Peralta F. 42. Sanchez V. 39. Servin L. J.
Coaches
Ze Ricardo	Holan A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Sonora A. ↓, Klimowicz M. ↑,
43', Dominguez C. 🟥,
43', Castro M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Klimowicz M. ↓, Benitez A. G. ↑,
46', Paredes C. ↓, Servin L. J. ↑,
52', Cazonatti G. 🟨,
61', Cazonatti G. ↓, Yotun Y. ↑,
72', Avila I. ↓, Vizeu F. ↑,
72', Gonzalez J. ↓, Gonzalez S. ↑,
82', 1 - 0, Vizeu F. ⚽, Yotun Y. (A),
86', Torres J. ↓, Paez E. ↑,
86', Chaparro M. ↓, Iturbe J. ↑,
90', Castro M. ↓, Cabellos C. ↑,
90+2', Tavara M. 🟨,

Preview

Recent performances by Sporting Cristal have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Cerro Porteño is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Cerro Porteño may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Sporting Cristal has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Sporting Cristal: Solis R. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Sporting Cristal: Gonzales C. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Cerro Porteño: Servin L. J. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Sporting Cristal won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Sporting Cristal won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

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Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Cerro Porteno: 1.95%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Cristal
Peruvian Liga 1
03.04.26	Sporting Cristal - Moquegua	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Los Chankas - Sporting Cristal	3:2 ✺
15.03.26	Sporting Cristal - Sport Boys	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
11.03.26	Sporting Cristal - Carabobo	2:2 penalties ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
07.03.26	Sporting Cristal - Alianza Atlético	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLWLW
- Cerro Porteño
Paraguayan Primera Division
04.04.26	Cerro Porteño - 2 de Mayo	3:0 ✺
31.03.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Cerro Porteño	2:3 ✺
28.03.26	Cerro Porteño - Sportivo San Lorenzo	2:0 ✺
21.03.26	Libertad Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	2:3 ✺
18.03.26	Rubio Ñu - Cerro Porteño	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
13.05.25	Sporting Cristal - Cerro Porteño	0:1
24.04.25	Cerro Porteño - Sporting Cristal	2:2

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