Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 4

Date: 5 November 2024, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio José Alvalade (Lisbon) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport App, SuperSport Maximo 3, SuperSport Variety 1
Argentina	17:00	FOX Sports 2
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Sport Austria 8
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 5, Pickx+ Sports 5, Play Sports 5
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Brazil	17:00	Claro TV+, Max, Sky+, Space, Space, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 2
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
China	04:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5
Czech Republic	21:00	Chnliga.tv, Nova Sport 6
Denmark	21:00	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Europe	—	UEFA TV
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 5
Georgia	00:00	Silk Sport 2
Germany	21:00	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 1, COSMOTE Sport 5
Hong Kong	04:00	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	21:00	RTL+, Sport 2
Iceland	20:00	Stod 2 Sport 2, Stod 2 Sport 4, Viaplay
India	01:30	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 1, Sony Sports TEN 2
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect
Ireland	20:00	Virgin Media Player
Japan	05:00	Wowow Cinema
Kosovo	21:00	ART Motion Sport 1, ART Motion Sport 4
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	21:00	TSN Malta 8
Mexico	14:00	Cinemax, HBO Max
Myanmar	02:30	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 5
New Zealand	09:00	DAZN New Zealand, TVWan
North Central America	—	SportsMax Caribbean
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	01:00	Tapmad
Philippines	04:00	beIN Connect
Poland	21:00	Canal+ Extra 3
Portugal	20:00	Sport TV5
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	04:00	beIN Sports 3, StarHub TV+
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
Slovenia	21:00	SportKlub 3
South America	—	ESPN 7 Latin America, ESPN7 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 3, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Zoom
Thailand	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 5
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports, TNT Sports 1, Virgin Media More
Usa	15:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	16:00	Inter
Vietnam	03:00	TV 360
International	20:00	Disney+, JioTV app, SportsMax App, Virgin TV Go app


	Sporting Lisbon		Manchester City

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.6	2.1
	3.3	3.6	2.05
	3.35	3.8	2.12	Watch
	3.51	3.77	2.09
	3.7	3.67	2.05	Watch
	3.5	3.75	2.05
	3.63	3.98	2.03
	3.35	3.8	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.47 ↓ (4.48)	3.75 ↓ (4.13)	2.08 ↑ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Lisbon
27.8%

Draw
25.7%

Manchester City
46.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

21.3%

23.1%

55.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.9%

22.7%

56.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Lisbon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sporting Lisbon's performance.

Manchester City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Manchester City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sporting Lisbon that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Manchester City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	14.8%	74.1%

Sporting Lisbon - Manchester City Predictions

Users Predictions: 105 users predict this event. Sporting will win (votes: 12 - 11.4%). Man City will win (votes: 78 - 74.3%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Man City: 65.9% – 82.7%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Israel F. (G) 6. Debast Z. 26. Diomande O. 2. Matheus Reis 57. Quenda G. 42. Hjulmand M. (C) 5. Morita H. 20. Araujo M. 17. Trincao 9. Gyokeres V. 8. Goncalves P.	31. Ederson (G) 82. Lewis R. 25. Akanji M. 66. Simpson-Pusey J. 24. Gvardiol J. 8. Kovacic M. 47. Foden P. 20. Silva B. (C) 26. Savinho 27. Nunes M. 9. Haaland E.
Substitutes
23. Braganca D. 21. Catamo G. 10. Edwards M. 47. Esgaio R. 22. Fresneda I. 19. Harder C. 13. Kovacevic V. (G) 51. Pinto Diogo (G) 72. Quaresma E. 52. Simoes J. 3. St. Juste J.	6. Ake N. 33. Carson S. (G) 17. De Bruyne K. 11. Doku J. 19. Gundogan I. 87. McAtee J. 75. O'Reilly N. 18. Ortega S. (G) 2. Walker K. 97. Wilson-Esbrand J. 56. Wright J.
Coaches
Amorim R.	Guardiola P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Foden P. ⚽,
38', 1 - 1, Gyokeres V. ⚽, Quenda G. (A),
45+1', Kovacic M. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', 2 - 1, Araujo M. ⚽, Goncalves P. (A),
49', 3 - 1, Gyokeres V. (Pen),
55', Goncalves P. 🟨,
69', Haaland E. (Pen),
73', Araujo M. 🟨,
73', Savinho 🟨,
75', Morita H. ↓, Braganca D. ↑,
75', Araujo M. ↓, Catamo G. ↑,
75', Matheus Reis ↓, St. Juste J. ↑,
77', Savinho ↓, Doku J. ↑,
77', Silva B. ↓, Gundogan I. ↑,
79', Nunes M. 🟨,
81', 4 - 1, Gyokeres V. (Pen),
85', Kovacic M. ↓, De Bruyne K. ↑,
85', Quenda G. ↓, Quaresma E. ↑,
88', Hjulmand M. 🟨,
88', Trincao ↓, Harder C. ↑,

Preview

Sporting in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Man City is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Man City could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Man City will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Sporting: Quaresma E. (Injury) Santos N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Man City: Bobb O. (Leg Injury) De Bruyne K. (Muscle Injury) Dias R. (Injury) Grealish J. (Injury) Rodri (Knee Injury) Savinho (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Sporting: Inacio G. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Man City: Stones J. (Ankle Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Sporting won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:8 (average 0.8:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Sporting won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:5 (average 0.5:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
01.11.24	Sporting Lisbon - Estrela da Amadora	5:1 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
29.10.24	Sporting Lisbon - Nacional	3:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
26.10.24	Famalicão - Sporting Lisbon	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.10.24	Sturm Graz - Sporting Lisbon	0:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.24	Portimonense - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWWWW
- Manchester City
English Premier League
02.11.24	Bournemouth - Manchester City	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
30.10.24	Tottenham Hotspur - Manchester City	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
26.10.24	Manchester City - Southampton	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
23.10.24	Manchester City - Sparta Prague	5:0 ✺
English Premier League
20.10.24	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Manchester City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
09.03.22	Manchester City - Sporting Lisbon	0:0
15.02.22	Sporting Lisbon - Manchester City	0:5
UEFA Europa League
15.03.12	Manchester City - Sporting Lisbon	3:2

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