Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 7

Date: 20 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estádio José Alvalade (Lisbon)

Referee: Taylor A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 4, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport Maximo 3
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	Sporting Lisbon		Paris Saint-Germain

	1	X	2
	4.2	4.2	1.73
	4.3	4.3	1.75
	4.45	4.34	1.75
	4.49	4.4	1.72	Watch
	4.2	4	1.73
	4.57	4.3	1.73
	4.5	4	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.39 ↑ (4.07)	4.22 ↑ (4.08)	1.73 ↓ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Lisbon
21.9%

Draw
22.7%

Paris Saint-Germain
55.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.5%

23.4%

53.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.5%

23.4%

53.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Lisbon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Paris Saint-Germain has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Lisbon than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.3%	5.3%	85.3%

Sporting Lisbon - Paris Saint Germain Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - PSG (1.91) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Sporting (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Paris Saint-Germain will win (64 of 75 users predict this - 85.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.32% – 93.34%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Paris Saint-Germain will win (28 of 30 users predict this - 93.33%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 33 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting (votes: 1 - 3%). PSG (votes: 30 - 90.9%). Tie (votes: 2 - 6.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva R. (G) 22. Fresneda I. 25. Inacio G. (C) 2. Matheus Reis 91. Mangas R. 52. Simoes J. 5. Morita H. 10. Catamo G. 17. Trincao 20. Araujo M. 97. Suarez L.	30. Chevalier L. (G) 33. Zaire-Emery W. 5. Marquinhos (C) 51. Pacho W. 25. Mendes N. 24. Mayulu S. 8. Ruiz F. 17. Vitinha 14. Doue D. 10. Dembele O. 29. Barcola B.
Substitutes
27. Alisson Santos 23. Braganca D. 78. Couto M. 6. Debast Z. 41. Diego Callai (G) 73. Felicissimo E. 58. Goncalves F. 14. Kochorashvili G. 45. Moreira D. 90. Nel R. 13. Vagiannidis G. 12. Virginia J. (G)	4. Beraldo L. 60. James M. (G) 7. Kvaratskhelia K. 89. Marin R. (G) 45. Nsoki N. 9. Ramos G. 6. Zabarnyi I.
Coaches
Borges R.	Luis Enrique

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
59', Mangas R. 🟨,
63', Mangas R. ↓, Vagiannidis G. ↑,
66', Mayulu S. ↓, Kvaratskhelia K. ↑,
71', Barcola B. ↓, Ramos G. ↑,
74', 1 - 0, Suarez L. ⚽,
79', 1 - 1, Kvaratskhelia K. ⚽, Dembele O. (A),
80', Ruiz F. ↓, Zabarnyi I. ↑,
87', Simoes J. ↓, Braganca D. ↑,
90', 2 - 1, Suarez L. ⚽, Trincao (A),
90+5', Suarez L. 🟨,
90+6', Kvaratskhelia K. 🟨,
90+6', Trincao ↓, Kochorashvili G. ↑,
90+6', Silva R. 🟨,

Preview

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

PSG may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, PSG has had a series of home games.

In this match, PSG is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Sporting: Hjulmand M. (Yellow Cards) Luis Guilherme (Inactive) Quaresma E. (Injury) Quenda G. (Foot Injury) Santos N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in PSG: Hakimi A. (Rest) Hernandez L. (Red Card) Lee Kang-In (Thigh Injury) Mbaye I. (Rest) Ndjantou Q. (Muscle Injury) Neves J. (Muscle Injury) Safonov M. (Broken Hand)

There are questionable in Sporting: Diomande O. (Injury) Goncalves P. (Muscle Injury) Ioannidis F. (Injury)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

PSG: 11.52% Sporting CP: 0.75%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	PSG	1	1	0	0	6:1	5	3
7	Sporting CP	1	1	0	0	3:1	2	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Lisbon
Liga Portugal
16.01.26	Sporting Lisbon - Casa Pia	3:0 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
06.01.26	Sporting Lisbon - Vitoria Guimarães	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
02.01.26	Gil Vicente - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
28.12.25	Sporting Lisbon - Rio Ave	4:0 ✺
23.12.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Sporting Lisbon	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLTWW
- Paris Saint-Germain
French Ligue 1
16.01.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Lille	3:0 ✺
Coupe De France
12.01.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Paris FC	0:1 ✺
French Super Cup
08.01.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	3:2 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
04.01.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Paris FC	2:1 ✺
Coupe De France
20.12.25	Fontenay - Paris Saint-Germain	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLWWW

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