Match Info

Torneo Federal - Winners stage - Round 6

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Oscar C. Boero (San Francisco)


	Sportivo Belgrano		Bartolomé Mitre

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.10	5.25
	1.64	3.15	5.30	Watch
	1.85	2.88	4.66
	1.81	2.98	5.05	Watch
	1.87	2.70	4.45
	1.71	3.22	5.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↑ (1.68)	3.01 ↓ (3.1)	5.07 ↑ (4.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo Belgrano
51.8%

Draw
30.3%

Bartolomé Mitre
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.1%

28.8%

18.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.3%

21.8%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo Belgrano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Bartolomé Mitre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sportivo Belgrano than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sportivo Belgrano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bartolomé Mitre than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bartolomé Mitre could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sportivo Belgrano - Bartolomé Mitre Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Carena J. (G)
4. Borghetto I.
5. Caviglia J. (C)
8. Churchi S.
2. Ferrero G.
3. Gancedo M.
10. Gimenez J.
7. Lehmann A.
9. Lesman G.
6. Pennesi T.
11. Tarifa G.
Substitutes
19. Bono J.
13. Cortese B
16. Flores L.
15. Franceschi E.
18. Mercado E.
12. Paccioretti A.
17. Pastorelli A.
14. Racca F.
20. Zamudio F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Tarifa G. ⚽,
19', 🟨,
28', 🟨,
40', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', 🟨,
53', (Penalty Awarded),
54', 2 - 0, Lesman G. ⚽,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Sportivo Belgrano has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Bartolomé Mitre has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Sportivo Belgrano is considered a favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo Belgrano
Argentinian Torneo Federal
23.08.26	Sarmiento de La Banda - Sportivo Belgrano	3:0 ✺
17.08.26	Sportivo Belgrano - Defensores de Belgrano de Villa Ramallo	0:2 ✺
12.08.26	General San Martín de Formosa - Sportivo Belgrano	2:0 ✺
07.08.26	Sportivo Belgrano - 9 de Julio	1:1 ✺
01.08.26	Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy - Sportivo Belgrano	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLLTT
- CA Bartolomé Mitre
Argentinian Torneo Federal
23.08.26	Bartolomé Mitre - Douglas Haig	0:3 ✺
16.08.26	Sol de América de Formosa - Bartolomé Mitre	2:1 ✺
08.08.26	Bartolomé Mitre - Sarmiento de La Banda	1:1 ✺
02.08.26	Defensores de Belgrano de Villa Ramallo - Bartolomé Mitre	1:0 ✺
26.07.26	General San Martín de Formosa - Bartolomé Mitre	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLL

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