Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 25 July 2024, Thursday

Location: Kybunpark (St. Gallen)

Referee: Harvey R. (Irl)

Where to Watch on TV:


Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, SRF 2, SRF 2, SRF Play, SRF Play


	St. Gallen		Tobol Kostanay

	1	X	2
	1.3	5.25	7.5	Watch
	1.31	5.25	7.5
	1.33	5	8.5
	1.32	5.05	8.86
	1.32	5.19	8.83	Watch
	1.33	4.75	7.5
	1.29	5.5	9.25	Watch
	1.31	5.4	8.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↑ (1.31)	5.17 ↑ (4.89)	8.27 ↓ (8.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Gallen
70.8%

Draw
18%

Tobol Kostanay
11.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.6%

18.9%

10.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.9%

15.5%

12.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Gallen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Tobol Kostanay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Gallen than the current prediction. (-12.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with St. Gallen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.5%	0%	23.5%

St. Gallen - Tobol Kostanay Predictions

Users Predictions: St. Gallen will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ati Zigi L. (G) 33. Schmidt I. 4. Stanic J. 20. Vallci A. 36. Okoroji C. 8. Quintilla J. (C) 64. Stevanovic M. 24. Toma B. 7. Witzig C. 9. Geubbels W. 10. Akolo C.	1. Pokatilov S. (G) 15. Gabaraev A. 55. Miladinovic I. 5. Ndiaye P. 3. Asrankulov R. (C) 16. Tapalov E. 6. Essien E. 13. Mosiashvili T. 11. Chesnokov I. 8. El Messaoudi A. 10. Ivanovic I.
Substitutes
5. Ambrosius S. 15. Diaby A. 22. Faber K. 16. Gortler L. 63. Konietzke C. 18. Mambimbi F. 19. Moller N. 14. Noah Yannick 30. Ruiz V. 25. Watkowiak L. (G)	4. Abdulla E. 25. Bozhko R. 20. Costa R. 51. Galym B. 77. Henen D. 35. Melikhov Y. (G) 28. Skakhov Y. 21. Tsonev R. 7. Zhumashev Z.
Coaches
Maassen E.	Zhumaskaliyev N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
18', Mosiashvili T. 🟨,
28', 0 - 1, Vallci A. (Own goal),
35', 1 - 1, Stevanovic M. ⚽, Witzig C. (A),
39', 2 - 1, Akolo C. ⚽, Schmidt I. (A),
45+3', Asrankulov R. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
56', Mosiashvili T. ↓, Tsonev R. ↑,
58', Schmidt I. ↓, Faber K. ↑,
58', Geubbels W. ↓, Moller N. ↑,
62', Essien E. 🟨,
65', Akolo C. ↓, Gortler L. ↑,
65', Stevanovic M. ↓, Mambimbi F. ↑,
73', Tapalov E. ↓, Zhumashev Z. ↑,
73', Asrankulov R. ↓, Costa R. ↑,
77', 3 - 1, Toma B. ⚽, Mambimbi F. (A),
82', El Messaoudi A. 🟨,
83', Witzig C. ↓, Ruiz V. ↑,
85', Chesnokov I. 🟨,
89', Quintilla J. 🟨,
90+3', Ivanovic I. ↓, Galym B. ↑,
90+7', 4 - 1, Vallci A. ⚽, Quintilla J. (A),

Preview

1st leg.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Tobol could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match St. Gallen is the unquestionable favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Gallen
Swiss Super League
20.07.24	Winterthur - St. Gallen	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
13.07.24	Vaduz - St. Gallen	0:1 ✺
06.07.24	Rapperswil-Jona - St. Gallen	3:1 ✺
30.06.24	St. Gallen - Universitatea Craiova	2:1 ✺
26.06.24	St. Gallen - Ludogorets Razgrad	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWLWL
- Tobol Kostanay
Kazakh League Cup
21.07.24	Kaisar - Tobol Kostanay	5:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
18.07.24	Tobol Kostanay - Ružomberok	1:0 ✺
11.07.24	Ružomberok - Tobol Kostanay	5:2 ✺
Kazakh League Cup
06.07.24	Tobol Kostanay - Aktobe	2:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
30.06.24	Aktobe - Tobol Kostanay	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 LWLWW

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