Match Info

USA: MLS

Date: 22 June 2024, Saturday

Location: CITYPARK (St. Louis, MO)

Referee: Dujic F. (Can)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass


	St. Louis City		Atlanta United

	1	X	2
	1.8	4.2	3.8	Watch
	1.78	4	3.8
	1.83	4.2	4	Watch
	1.82	4.15	4.05
	1.83	4.15	4.05
	1.8	4	3.9
	1.81	4.15	3.91	Watch
	1.76	4.1	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.98)	4.12 ↑ (3.5)	3.92 ↑ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Louis City
52.7%

Draw
23.1%

Atlanta United
24.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.5%

25.8%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.5%

26.4%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Louis City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in St. Louis City's performance.

Atlanta United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Louis City than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with St. Louis City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlanta United than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	22.2%	11.1%

St. Louis City - Atlanta United Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. St. Louis City will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Atlanta will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for St. Louis City: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Burki R. (G) 14. Totland T. 40. Wentzel M. 26. Parker T. 99. Reid J. 19. Vassilev I. 10. Lowen E. 8. Durkin C. 29. Thorisson N. 85. Kijima H. 9. Joao Klauss	1. Guzan B. (C) 21. Morales E. 3. Williams D. 24. Cobb N. 11. Lennon B. 35. Fortune A. 8. Muyumba T. 26. Wiley C. 29. Thiare J. 19. Rios D. 16. Silva X.
Substitutes
6. Blom N. 46. Glover C. 41. Klein J. 39. Lundt B. (G) 13. Markanich A. 80. McSorley B. 2. Nerwinski J. 20. Watts A. 15. Yaro J.	25. Brennan L. 22. Cohen J. (G) 47. Edwards M. 55. Gallardo M. 5. Gregersen S. 2. Hernandez R. 13. McCarty D. 30. Nick Firmino 28. Wolff T.
Coaches
Carnell B.	Valentino R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Morales E. ↓, Gregersen S. ↑,
46', Gregersen S. 🟨,
50', 1 - 0, Vassilev I. ⚽, Joao Klauss (A), Reid J. (A2)
58', Reid J. 🟨,
61', Thiare J. ↓, McCarty D. ↑,
71', Rios D. (Pen),
71', 1 - 1, Rios D. ⚽,
72', Kijima H. ↓, Klein J. ↑,
72', Totland T. ↓, Watts A. ↑,
72', Joao Klauss ↓, Glover C. ↑,
83', Thorisson N. ↓, Blom N. ↑,
85', Vassilev I. 🟨,
87', Silva X. ↓, Brennan L. ↑,
90+8', Wentzel M. ↓, Nerwinski J. ↑,
90+9', Rios D. ↓, Nick Firmino ↑,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 12 and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).

St. Louis City is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Atlanta is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

St. Louis City could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

St. Louis City will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Atlanta: Abram L. (International duty) Almada T. (Yellow Cards) Lobjanidze S. (International duty) Mosquera E. (Injury) Slisz B. (International duty)

There are questionable in Atlanta: Gregersen S. (Injury) Wolff T. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- St. Louis City SC
MLS
19.06.24	St. Louis City - Colorado Rapids	0:3 ✺
15.06.24	FC Dallas - St. Louis City	2:0 ✺
08.06.24	St. Louis City - Portland Timbers	0:0 ✺
01.06.24	Inter Miami - St. Louis City	3:3 ✺
25.05.24	St. Louis City - Seattle Sounders	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LLTTL
- Atlanta United
MLS
19.06.24	DC United - Atlanta United	0:1 ✺
15.06.24	Atlanta United - Houston Dynamo	2:2 ✺
02.06.24	Atlanta United - Charlotte	2:3 ✺
29.05.24	Inter Miami - Atlanta United	1:3 ✺
25.05.24	Atlanta United - Los Angeles	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WTLWL

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