Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 11

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Stieler T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 2, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena, Startimes Sports Focus
Albania	17:30	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	13:30	Disney+, ESPN 3
Asia	—	MBC Action
Australia	03:30	beIN Connect
Austria	17:30	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Brazil	13:30	Canal GOAT
Bulgaria	18:30	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	11:30	DAZN Canada
China	00:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	11:30	ESPN 2
Czech Republic	17:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	17:30	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Europe	—	Go3 Sport 3 Baltic
Fiji	04:30	Sky Pacific
Finland	18:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	17:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 8, Free
Germany	17:30	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	18:30	Nova Sports 3
Hong Kong	00:30	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Iceland	16:30	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	22:00	Vision+
Indonesia	23:30	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	18:30	Sport 3
Italy	17:30	Sky Sport MIX
Japan	01:30	DAZN Japan
Laos	23:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	00:30	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Malta	17:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	10:30	Sky Sport
Mongolia	00:30	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	17:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	05:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	17:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	17:30	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	21:30	Tapmad
Peru	11:30	Disney+
Philippines	00:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	17:30	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	16:30	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	18:30	Prima Sport PPV 2
Russia	19:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	19:30	Shahid
Serbia	17:30	Arena Sport 1
Singapore	00:30	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	17:30	Voyo
Slovenia	17:30	Sport TV1
South America	—	ESPN 2 South
South Korea	01:30	Coupang Play
Spain	17:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	17:30	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	17:30	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	23:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	19:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Ukraine	18:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United Kingdom	16:30	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	13:30	Disney+
Usa	11:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	12:30	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	23:30	TV 360
International	16:30	Onefootball


	St. Pauli		Union Berlin

	1	X	2
	2.7	3	2.88	Watch
	2.68	3.05	2.88	Watch
	2.54	3.3	3.05
	2.31	3.35	3.13	Watch
				Watch
	2.75	3.15	2.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (2.34)	3.17 ↓ (3.34)	2.99 ↓ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
37.2%

Draw
30.5%

Union Berlin
32.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.8%

28.6%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8%

29.3%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Union Berlin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.3%	26.7%	50%

St. Pauli - Union Berlin Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 7 - 24.1%). Union Berlin will win (votes: 15 - 51.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 24.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Union Berlin: 33.5% – 69.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - under (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Union Berlin (1.97) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Union Berlin (2.00) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Union Berlin will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Union Berlin (votes: 10 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 5. Wahl H. 8. Smith E. 3. Mets K. 11. Pyrka A. 6. Sands J. 23. Oppie L. 16. Fujita J. 7. Irvine J. (C) 27. Hountondji A. 28. Pereira Lage M.	1. Ronnow F. (G) 5. Doekhi D. 14. Querfeld L. 4. Leite D. 28. Trimmel C. (C) 8. Khedira R. 6. Kemlein A. 15. Rothe T. 7. Burke O. 10. Ansah I. 23. Ilic A.
Substitutes
9. Ceesay A. 26. Jones R.J. 19. Kaars M. 24. Metcalfe C. 21. Ritzka L. 34. Robatsch J. 10. Sinani D. 14. Stevens F. 1. Voll B. A. (G)	9. Burcu L. 19. Haberer J. 11. Jeong Woo-Yeong 39. Kohn D. 33. Kral A. 27. Ljubicic M. 34. Nsoki S. 31. Raab M. (G) 21. Skarke T.
Coaches
Blessin A.	Baumgart S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
38', Fujita J. 🟨,
44', 0 - 1, Khedira R. ⚽, Ilic A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Khedira R. 🟨,
64', Hountondji A. ↓, Sinani D. ↑,
64', Irvine J. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,
65', Ilic A. ↓, Kral A. ↑,
72', Burke O. ↓, Jeong Woo-Yeong ↑,
73', Rothe T. ↓, Kohn D. ↑,
73', Kemlein A. ↓, Haberer J. ↑,
73', Pyrka A. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
82', Ansah I. ↓, Skarke T. ↑,
87', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 2.

Recent form of St. Pauli has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Union Berlin has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Union Berlin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Union Berlin has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in St. Pauli: Dzwigala A. (Muscle Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury) Saliakas M. (Groin Injury) Schmitz M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Union Berlin: Bogdanov D. (Injury) Juranovic J. (Injury) Markgraf A. (Leg Injury) Schafer A. (Knock) Skov R. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 27:33. (average 1.4:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, St. Pauli won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:9. (average 1.8:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
09.11.25	Freiburg - St. Pauli	2:1 ✺
01.11.25	St. Pauli - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:4 ✺
German DFB Pokal
28.10.25	St. Pauli - Hoffenheim	3:2 penalties ✺
German Bundesliga
25.10.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - St. Pauli	2:0 ✺
19.10.25	St. Pauli - Hoffenheim	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLWLL
- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
08.11.25	Union Berlin - Bayern Munich	2:2 ✺
01.11.25	Union Berlin - Freiburg	0:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
29.10.25	Union Berlin - Arminia Bielefeld	2:1 ET ✺
German Bundesliga
24.10.25	Werder Bremen - Union Berlin	1:0 ✺
17.10.25	Union Berlin - Borussia Mönchengladbach	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
26.01.25	St. Pauli - Union Berlin	3:0
30.08.24	Union Berlin - St. Pauli	1:0
Club Friendly
21.12.22	Union Berlin - St. Pauli	3:2
German DFB Pokal
01.03.22	Union Berlin - St. Pauli	2:1
German 2 Bundesliga
04.02.19	St. Pauli - Union Berlin	3:2
26.08.18	Union Berlin - St. Pauli	4:1
14.04.18	St. Pauli - Union Berlin	0:1

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