Match Info

GERMANY: Bundesliga - Round 12

Date: 29 November 2024, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	CANAL+ Sport 1, New World Sport App, StarTimes App
Argentina	16:30	Disney+
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	06:30	beIN Connect
Austria	20:30	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Belgium	20:30	DAZN 1
Bulgaria	21:30	Nova Sport
Canada	14:30	DAZN Canada
China	03:30	ZhiBo8
Colombia	14:30	Disney+
Czech Republic	20:30	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	20:30	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	21:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, beIN Sports MAX 7, Free
Germany	20:30	ARD, DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch, Sportschau
Greece	21:30	Nova Sports 3
Hong Kong	03:30	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Hungary	20:30	Net4+
Iceland	19:30	Viaplay
India	01:00	Vision+
Indonesia	02:30	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI+
Israel	21:30	Sport 1
Italy	20:30	NOW TV, Sky Sport Calcio
Laos	02:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	03:30	beIN Connect
Malta	20:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	13:30	Sky Sport
Netherlands	20:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	08:30	beIN Connect, TVWan
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	20:30	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	00:30	Tapmad
Peru	14:30	Disney+
Philippines	03:30	beIN Connect
Poland	20:30	Viaplay
Portugal	19:30	DAZN 4
Russia	22:30	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Slovakia	20:30	Voyo
Slovenia	20:30	Sport TV1
South Korea	04:30	Coupang Play
Spain	20:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	20:30	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	20:30	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	02:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	22:30	beIN Connect, Tivibu Spor 1
United Kingdom	19:30	Sky Sports+
Usa	14:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	15:30	Disney+
Vietnam	02:30	ON Plus
International	19:30	Disney+, Onefootball


	St. Pauli		Holstein Kiel

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.75	5.25	Watch
	1.71	3.7	5
	1.72	4	5	Watch
	1.72	3.86	5.3
	1.69	3.93	5.41	Watch
	1.67	3.6	5	Watch
	1.74	3.97	5.3	Watch
	1.72	4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.88)	3.85 ↑ (3.73)	5.16 ↑ (4.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
56.4%

Draw
25%

Holstein Kiel
18.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50.8%

25.6%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1%

24.3%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in St. Pauli's performance.

Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with St. Pauli that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Holstein Kiel could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.1%	42.9%	19%

St. Pauli - Holstein Kiel Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 8 - 40%). Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 4 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for St. Pauli: 18.5% – 61.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 5. Wahl H. 8. Smith E. 4. Nemeth D. 2. Saliakas M. 16. Boukhalfa C. 7. Irvine J. (C) 23. Treu P. 17. Afolayan O. 11. Eggestein J. 29. Guilavogui M.	1. Weiner T. (G) 6. Ivezic M. 4. Erras P. 14. Geschwill M. 17. Becker T. 10. Holtby L. (C) 22. Remberg N. 8. Porath F. 24. Knudsen M. 19. Harres P. 20. Arp J.-F.
Substitutes
20. Ahlstrand E. 19. Albers A. 25. Dzwigala A. 33. Maurides 32. Oelschlagel E. (G) 21. Ritzka L. 42. Schmitz M. 10. Sinani D. 14. Stevens F.	21. Dahne T. (G) 37. Gigovic A. 33. Javorcek D. 5. Johansson C. 3. Komenda M. 18. Machino S. 9. Pichler B. 27. Puchacz T. 23. Rosenboom L.
Coaches
Blessin A.	Rapp M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', Holtby L. 🟨,
23', Machino S. 🟨,
25', 1 - 0, Saliakas M. ⚽, Eggestein J. (A),
27', Ivezic M. 🟨,
38', Becker T. 🟨,
38', Smith E. 🟨,
45', Arp J.-F. (Pen),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
50', Rapp M. 🟨,
56', 2 - 0, Guilavogui M. ⚽, Eggestein J. (A),
59', Arp J.-F. ↓, Machino S. ↑,
68', Holtby L. ↓, Pichler B. ↑,
68', Geschwill M. ↓, Puchacz T. ↑,
71', Saliakas M. ↓, Ritzka L. ↑,
74', Guilavogui M. ↓, Sinani D. ↑,
77', Knudsen M. ↓, Gigovic A. ↑,
78', Porath F. ↓, Rosenboom L. ↑,
85', 3 - 0, Eggestein J. ⚽, Treu P. (A),
86', Afolayan O. 🟨,
89', Eggestein J. ↓, Albers A. ↑,
90', Afolayan O. ↓, Ahlstrand E. ↑,
90+1', 3 - 1, Harres P. ⚽, Pichler B. (A),
90+2', Erras P. 🟨,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).

Last 5 head-to-head matches St. Pauli won 3.

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

Recently St. Pauli have a series of guest games.

In this match St. Pauli is a favorite.

There will not play in St. Pauli: Ahlers S. (Knee Injury) Banks S. (Ankle Injury) Burchert S. (Groin Injury) Dzwigala A. (Groin Injury) Metcalfe C. (Groin Injury) Mets K. (Tendon Injury) Saad E. (Ankle Injury) Voll B. A. (Broken jawbone) Wagner R. (Thigh Injury) Zoller S. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Johansson C. (Concussion) Kelati A. Y. (Knee Injury) Kleine-Bekel C. (Surgery)

There are questionable in Holstein Kiel: Bernhardsson A. (Hip Injury)

Last 17 head-to-head matches St. Pauli won 7 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 27:28 (average 1.6:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams St. Pauli won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 14:6 (average 2:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
24.11.24	Borussia Mönchengladbach - St. Pauli	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
14.11.24	Eintracht Braunschweig - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
09.11.24	St. Pauli - Bayern Munich	0:1 ✺
02.11.24	Hoffenheim - St. Pauli	0:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
29.10.24	RB Leipzig - St. Pauli	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LTLWL
- Holstein Kiel
German Bundesliga
24.11.24	Holstein Kiel - Mainz	0:3 ✺
09.11.24	Werder Bremen - Holstein Kiel	2:1 ✺
02.11.24	Holstein Kiel - Heidenheim	1:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
29.10.24	Köln - Holstein Kiel	3:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
26.10.24	Stuttgart - Holstein Kiel	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
23.02.24	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	3:4
17.09.23	St. Pauli - Holstein Kiel	5:1
19.05.23	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	3:4
08.11.22	St. Pauli - Holstein Kiel	0:0
Club Friendly
25.06.22	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	2:0
German 2 Bundesliga
17.12.21	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	3:0
25.07.21	St. Pauli - Holstein Kiel	3:0

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