Match Info

GERMANY: Bundesliga - Round 11

Date: 24 November 2024, Sunday

Location: Holstein-Stadion (Kiel)

Referee: Stegemann S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, New World Sport 1, New World Sport App, StarTimes App
Argentina	ESPN 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	Idman TV
Belgium	DAZN 1
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	Tianjin Sports Channel, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN 5
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay, V Sport 1, V Sport+
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free, New World TV
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	ARD, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, Sportschau
Greece	Nova Sports Prime
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4, Net4+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI+
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect, TVWan
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Fox Sports 2
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	DAZN 3
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, StarHub TV+
Slovakia	Sport TV2, Voyo
South-america	ESPN 5 South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, PPTV Sports
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4, Tivibu Spor 1
Ukraine	Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Plus, ON Sport, TV 360
World	Disney+, JioTV app, Onefootball


	Holstein Kiel		Mainz

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.4	2.15	Watch
	3.25	3.5	2.15
	3.4	3.6	2.15	Watch
	3.43	3.56	2.2
	3.42	3.54	2.2	Watch
	3.25	3.5	2.1	Watch
	3.4	3.81	2.18	Watch
	3.4	3.6	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.36 ↑ (3.04)	3.56 ↓ (3.56)	2.16 ↓ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Holstein Kiel
28.6%

Draw
26.9%

Mainz
44.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.6%

26.9%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

26.5%

40.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	33.3%	58.3%

Holstein Kiel - Mainz Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 2 - 8.3%). Mainz will win (votes: 14 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 38.6% – 78%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weiner T. (G) 6. Ivezic M. 4. Erras P. 14. Geschwill M. 10. Holtby L. (C) 17. Becker T. 7. Skrzybski S. 22. Remberg N. 27. Puchacz T. 19. Harres P. 18. Machino S.	27. Zentner R. (G) 21. da Costa D. 16. Bell S. 31. Kohr D. 19. Caci A. 6. Sano K. 18. Amiri N. 2. Mwene P. 8. Nebel P. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 29. Burkardt J. (C)
Substitutes
20. Arp J.-F. 21. Dahne T. (G) 37. Gigovic A. 33. Javorcek D. 3. Komenda M. 9. Pichler B. 8. Porath F. 23. Rosenboom L. 15. Schulz M.	4. Barkok A. 25. Hanche-Olsen A. 14. Hong Hyun-Seok 3. Jenz M. 5. Leitsch M. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A. 22. Veratschnig N. 30. Widmer S.
Coaches
Rapp M.	Henriksen B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
11', 0 - 1, Amiri N. ⚽, Nebel P. (A),
33', Machino S. ↓, Porath F. ↑,
33', Puchacz T. ↓, Gigovic A. ↑,
37', 0 - 2, Burkardt J. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Holtby L. ↓, Pichler B. ↑,
53', 0 - 3, Lee Jae-Sung ⚽, Caci A. (A),
56', Erras P. 🟨,
69', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Hong Hyun-Seok ↑,
72', Geschwill M. ↓, Schulz M. ↑,
76', Skrzybski S. ↓, Javorcek D. ↑,
80', Caci A. ↓, Widmer S. ↑,
80', Burkardt J. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
90+1', Mwene P. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
90+1', Kohr D. ↓, Hanche-Olsen A. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 12).

Holstein Kiel is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Mainz is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recently Mainz have a series of home games.

Mainz will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Johansson C. (Concussion) Kelati A. Y. (Knee Injury) Kleine-Bekel C. (Surgery) Knudsen M. (Yellow Cards) Pichler B. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Mainz: Weiper N. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Holstein Kiel: Bernhardsson A. (Hip Injury)

There are questionable in Mainz: Onisiwo K. (Stomach Disorder)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Holstein Kiel won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Holstein Kiel
German Bundesliga
09.11.24	Werder Bremen - Holstein Kiel	2:1 ✺
02.11.24	Holstein Kiel - Heidenheim	1:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
29.10.24	Köln - Holstein Kiel	3:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
26.10.24	Stuttgart - Holstein Kiel	2:1 ✺
20.10.24	Holstein Kiel - Union Berlin	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWLLL
- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
09.11.24	Mainz - Borussia Dortmund	3:1 ✺
03.11.24	Freiburg - Mainz	0:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
30.10.24	Mainz - Bayern Munich	0:4 ✺
German Bundesliga
25.10.24	Mainz - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:1 ✺
19.10.24	Mainz - RB Leipzig	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

German DFB Pokal
24.10.17	Mainz - Holstein Kiel	3:2 ET

Upcoming Matches