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Holstein Kiel - Mainz

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Match Info

  • GERMANY: Bundesliga - Round 11
  • Date: 24 November 2024, Sunday ๐Ÿ Finished
  • Location: Holstein-Stadion (Kiel) ๐ŸŒค๏ธ ...
  • Referee: Stegemann S. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
    • CountryKick-OffTV Channels
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    Holstein Kiel Mainz
    Holstein Kiel Mainz
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 3.36 ↑
    (3.04)    		 3.56 ↓
    (3.56)    		 2.16 ↓
    (2.31)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

    • The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Holstein Kiel
    28.6%    		Draw
    26.9%    		Mainz
    44.5%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    31.6% 26.9% 41.5%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    32.1% 26.5% 40.9%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)
  • Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (+3.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    8.3% 33.3% 58.3%

    Holstein Kiel - Mainz Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 2 - 8.3%). Mainz will win (votes: 14 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 33.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 38.6% โ€“ 78%.
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. GermanyWeiner T. (G)
      6. SerbiaIvezic M.
      4. GermanyErras P.
    14. GermanyGeschwill M.
    10. GermanyHoltby L. (C)
    17. GermanyBecker T.
      7. GermanySkrzybski S.
    22. GermanyRemberg N.
    27. PolandPuchacz T.
    19. GermanyHarres P.
    18. JapanMachino S.
    		27. GermanyZentner R. (G)
    21. Germanyda Costa D.
    16. GermanyBell S.
    31. GermanyKohr D.
    19. FranceCaci A.
      6. JapanSano K.
    18. GermanyAmiri N.
      2. AustriaMwene P.
      8. GermanyNebel P.
      7. SouthLee Jae-Sung
    29. GermanyBurkardt J. (C)
    Substitutes
    20. GermanyArp J.-F.
    21. GermanyDahne T. (G)
    37. BosniaGigovic A.
    33. SlovakiaJavorcek D.
      3. GermanyKomenda M.
      9. AustriaPichler B.
      8. GermanyPorath F.
    23. GermanyRosenboom L.
    15. GermanySchulz M.
    		  4. MoroccoBarkok A.
    25. NorwayHanche-Olsen A.
    14. SouthHong Hyun-Seok
      3. GermanyJenz M.
      5. GermanyLeitsch M.
      1. GermanyRiess L. (G)
    11. GermanySieb A.
    22. AustriaVeratschnig N.
    30. SwitzerlandWidmer S.
    Coaches
         GermanyRapp M.
    		     DenmarkHenriksen B.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 2)
    • 11', 0 - 1, Amiri N. ⚽, Nebel P. (A),
    • 33', Machino S. ↓, Porath F. ↑,
    • 33', Puchacz T. ↓, Gigovic A. ↑,
    • 37', 0 - 2, Burkardt J. (Pen),
    • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
    • 46', Holtby L. ↓, Pichler B. ↑,
    • 53', 0 - 3, Lee Jae-Sung ⚽, Caci A. (A),
    • 56', Erras P. 🟨,
    • 69', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Hong Hyun-Seok ↑,
    • 72', Geschwill M. ↓, Schulz M. ↑,
    • 76', Skrzybski S. ↓, Javorcek D. ↑,
    • 80', Caci A. ↓, Widmer S. ↑,
    • 80', Burkardt J. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
    • 90+1', Mwene P. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
    • 90+1', Kohr D. ↓, Hanche-Olsen A. ↑,

    Preview

  • The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 12).
  • Holstein Kiel is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
  • Recent matches Mainz is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
  • Recently Mainz have a series of home games.
  • Mainz will have a mini benefit in this match.
  • There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Johansson C. (Concussion) Kelati A. Y. (Knee Injury) Kleine-Bekel C. (Surgery) Knudsen M. (Yellow Cards) Pichler B. (Leg Injury)
  • There will not play in Mainz: Weiper N. (Muscle Injury)
  • There are questionable in Holstein Kiel: Bernhardsson A. (Hip Injury)
  • There are questionable in Mainz: Onisiwo K. (Stomach Disorder)
  • Last 1 head-to-head matches Holstein Kiel won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:3

    • Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Holstein Kiel
    German Bundesliga
    09.11.24 Werder Bremen - Holstein Kiel 2:1 ✺
    02.11.24 Holstein Kiel - Heidenheim 1:0 ✺
    German DFB Pokal
    29.10.24 Kรถln - Holstein Kiel 3:0 ✺
    German Bundesliga
    26.10.24 Stuttgart - Holstein Kiel 2:1 ✺
    20.10.24 Holstein Kiel - Union Berlin 0:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9
    LWLLL
    - Mainz 05
    German Bundesliga
    09.11.24 Mainz - Borussia Dortmund 3:1 ✺
    03.11.24 Freiburg - Mainz 0:0 ✺
    German DFB Pokal
    30.10.24 Mainz - Bayern Munich 0:4 ✺
    German Bundesliga
    25.10.24 Mainz - Borussia Mรถnchengladbach 1:1 ✺
    19.10.24 Mainz - RB Leipzig 0:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1
    WTLTL
    Latest Head to Head
    German DFB Pokal
    24.10.17 Mainz - Holstein Kiel 3:2 ET
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Holstein Kiel
    German 2 Bundesliga
    01.11.26 Greuther Fรผrth - Holstein Kiel ✺
    German DFB Pokal
    28.10.26 Holstein Kiel - Hoffenheim ✺
    - Mainz 05
    German Bundesliga
    30.10.26 Elversberg - Mainz ✺

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