Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 29

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Stieler T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 1, Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
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Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Australia	beIN Connect
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Usa	ESPN App, ESPN USA, ESPN+
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Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	St. Pauli		Bayern Munich

	1	X	2
	8	6	1.3	Watch
	9.3	5.4	1.32	Watch
	9.44	6.05	1.32
	8.58	5.8	1.35	Watch
	7.5	5.5	1.3	Watch
	8.36	6.27	1.33	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.53 ↑ (8.2)	5.84 ↑ (5.63)	1.32 ↓ (1.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
11.2%

Draw
16.4%

Bayern Munich
72.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.6%

16.9%

71.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.2%

16.4%

73.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

The ML Model estimate for St. Pauli aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	11.4%	61.4%

St. Pauli - Bayern Munich Predictions

Users Predictions: 44 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 12 - 27.3%). Bayern will win (votes: 27 - 61.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 11.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 47% – 75.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - St. Pauli (6.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayern Munich will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 2 - 40%). Bayern (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 15. Ando T. 5. Wahl H. (C) 3. Mets K. 11. Pyrka A. 16. Fujita J. 20. Rasmussen M. 21. Ritzka L. 10. Sinani D. 28. Pereira Lage M. 27. Hountondji A.	1. Neuer M. (C) 27. Laimer K. 3. Kim Min-Jae 21. Ito H. 20. Bischof T. 6. Kimmich J. 8. Goretzka L. 17. Olise M. 22. Guerreiro R. 10. Musiala J. 11. Jackson N.
Substitutes
9. Ceesay A. 25. Dzwigala A. 18. Hara T. 19. Kaars M. 24. Metcalfe C. 4. Nemeth D. 23. Oppie L. 34. Robatsch J. 1. Voll B. A. (G)	19. Davies A. 14. Diaz L. 9. Kane H. 39. Ndiaye B. 45. Pavlovic A. 44. Stanisic J. 4. Tah J. 2. Upamecano D. 40. Urbig J. (G)
Coaches
Blessin A.	Kompany V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Musiala J. ⚽, Laimer K. (A),
19', Laimer K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 4)
52', Fujita J. 🟨,
52', Olise M. 🟨,
53', 0 - 2, Goretzka L. ⚽,
55', 0 - 3, Olise M. ⚽, Goretzka L. (A),
58', Laimer K. ↓, Stanisic J. ↑,
59', Kimmich J. ↓, Davies A. ↑,
59', Olise M. ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
65', 0 - 4, Jackson N. ⚽, Musiala J. (A),
66', Fujita J. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
67', Ito H. ↓, Tah J. ↑,
77', Ritzka L. ↓, Oppie L. ↑,
77', Hountondji A. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
84', Musiala J. ↓, Ndiaye B. ↑,
88', 0 - 5, Guerreiro R. ⚽,
89', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Hara T. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Bayern is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )

St. Pauli has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Bayern is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Bayern may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Bayern is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in St. Pauli: Irvine J. (Red Card) Jones R.J. (Ankle Injury) Saliakas M. (Thigh Injury) Sands J. (Ankle Injury) Smith E. (Injury)

There will not play in Bayern: Cardozo M. (Thigh Injury) Karl L. (Muscle Injury) Kiala C. (Ankle Injury) Mike W. (Hip Injury) Ulreich S. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 1:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayern Munich: 79.95%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	14:2	12	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
05.04.26	Union Berlin - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	St. Pauli - Freiburg	1:2 ✺
13.03.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - St. Pauli	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	St. Pauli - Eintracht Frankfurt	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Hoffenheim - St. Pauli	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 TLLTW
- Bayern Munich
UEFA Champions League
07.04.26	Real Madrid - Bayern Munich	1:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
04.04.26	Freiburg - Bayern Munich	2:3 ✺
21.03.26	Bayern Munich - Union Berlin	4:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.03.26	Bayern Munich - Atalanta	4:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
14.03.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
29.11.25	Bayern Munich - St. Pauli	3:1
29.03.25	Bayern Munich - St. Pauli	3:2
09.11.24	St. Pauli - Bayern Munich	0:1

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