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St. Pauli vs Bayern Munich Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, April 11, 2026)

Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 29

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Stieler T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 1, Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Bolivia	ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4P
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Prime
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Ireland	NOW
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	Tapmad
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Sport TV2, Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Top Event
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, PPTV Sports
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Football
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN USA, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	St. Pauli		Bayern Munich

	1	X	2
	8	6	1.3	Watch
	9.3	5.4	1.32	Watch
	9.44	6.05	1.32
	8.58	5.8	1.35	Watch
	7.5	5.5	1.3
	8.36	6.27	1.33	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.53 ↑ (8.2)	5.84 ↑ (5.63)	1.32 ↓ (1.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
11.2%

Draw
16.4%

Bayern Munich
72.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.6%

16.9%

71.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.2%

16.4%

73.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

The ML Model estimate for St. Pauli aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	11.4%	61.4%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 44 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 12 - 27.3%). Bayern will win (votes: 27 - 61.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 11.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 47% – 75.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.25 - St. Pauli (2.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - St. Pauli (2.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - St. Pauli (6.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayern Munich will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Bayern (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 15. Ando T. 5. Wahl H. (C) 3. Mets K. 11. Pyrka A. 16. Fujita J. 20. Rasmussen M. 21. Ritzka L. 10. Sinani D. 28. Pereira Lage M. 27. Hountondji A.	1. Neuer M. (C) 27. Laimer K. 3. Kim Min-Jae 21. Ito H. 20. Bischof T. 6. Kimmich J. 8. Goretzka L. 17. Olise M. 22. Guerreiro R. 10. Musiala J. 11. Jackson N.
Substitutes
9. Ceesay A. 25. Dzwigala A. 18. Hara T. 19. Kaars M. 24. Metcalfe C. 4. Nemeth D. 23. Oppie L. 34. Robatsch J. 1. Voll B. A. (G)	19. Davies A. 14. Diaz L. 9. Kane H. 39. Ndiaye B. 45. Pavlovic A. 44. Stanisic J. 4. Tah J. 2. Upamecano D. 40. Urbig J. (G)
Coaches
Blessin A.	Kompany V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Musiala J. ⚽, Laimer K. (A),
19', Laimer K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 4)
52', Fujita J. 🟨,
52', Olise M. 🟨,
53', 0 - 2, Goretzka L. ⚽,
55', 0 - 3, Olise M. ⚽, Goretzka L. (A),
58', Laimer K. ↓, Stanisic J. ↑,
59', Kimmich J. ↓, Davies A. ↑,
59', Olise M. ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
65', 0 - 4, Jackson N. ⚽, Musiala J. (A),
66', Fujita J. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
67', Ito H. ↓, Tah J. ↑,
77', Ritzka L. ↓, Oppie L. ↑,
77', Hountondji A. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
84', Musiala J. ↓, Ndiaye B. ↑,
88', 0 - 5, Guerreiro R. ⚽,
89', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Hara T. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Bayern is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )

St. Pauli has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Bayern is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Bayern may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Bayern is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in St. Pauli: Irvine J. (Red Card) Jones R.J. (Ankle Injury) Saliakas M. (Thigh Injury) Sands J. (Ankle Injury) Smith E. (Injury)

There will not play in Bayern: Cardozo M. (Thigh Injury) Karl L. (Muscle Injury) Kiala C. (Ankle Injury) Mike W. (Hip Injury) Ulreich S. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 1:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

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Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bayern Munich ✔	32	26	5	1	116:35	81	83
16	St. Pauli	31	6	8	17	26:53	-27	26

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
05.04.26	Union Berlin - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	St. Pauli - Freiburg	1:2 ✺
13.03.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - St. Pauli	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	St. Pauli - Eintracht Frankfurt	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Hoffenheim - St. Pauli	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 TLLTW
- Bayern Munich
UEFA Champions League
07.04.26	Real Madrid - Bayern Munich	1:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
04.04.26	Freiburg - Bayern Munich	2:3 ✺
21.03.26	Bayern Munich - Union Berlin	4:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.03.26	Bayern Munich - Atalanta	4:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
14.03.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
29.11.25	Bayern Munich - St. Pauli	3:1
29.03.25	Bayern Munich - St. Pauli	3:2
09.11.24	St. Pauli - Bayern Munich	0:1

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