Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 33

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Brand B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Focus
Albania	15:30	Tring Sport 4
Argentina	10:30	Disney+
Australia	23:30	beIN Connect
Austria	15:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Bosnia And Herzegovina	15:30	Arena Sport 5
Bulgaria	16:30	Nova Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	09:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	09:30	Disney+
Colombia	08:30	Disney+
Denmark	15:30	Viaplay
Finland	16:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	15:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Germany	15:30	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, WOW
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports 5
Hong Kong	21:30	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Iceland	13:30	Viaplay
India	19:00	Sony LIV, Vision+
Indonesia	20:30	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, SINDOnews TV
Japan	22:30	DAZN Japan
Laos	20:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	07:30	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	01:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	15:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	15:30	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	18:30	Tapmad
Peru	08:30	Disney+
Philippines	21:30	beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	15:30	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	14:30	DAZN / App
Russia	16:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	16:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	15:30	Arena Sport 2
Singapore	21:30	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	15:30	Sport TV2
South Korea	22:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	15:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Thailand	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	16:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 4
Uruguay	10:30	Disney+
Usa	09:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	09:30	Disney+
Vietnam	20:30	TV 360
International	13:30	Onefootball


	RB Leipzig		St. Pauli

	1	X	2
	1.27	6.25	9	Watch
	1.44	4.8	6.5
	1.29	5.9	9.3	Watch
	1.3	6.3	10
	1.32	5.65	9.11	Watch
	1.29	5.5	8.5	Watch
	1.3	6.52	9.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.43)	5.85 ↑ (4.72)	8.83 ↑ (6.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

RB Leipzig
72.8%

Draw
16.4%

St. Pauli
10.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

66%

20%

14%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.7%

18.9%

13.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RB Leipzig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in RB Leipzig's performance.

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	5.7%	8.6%

RB Leipzig - St. Pauli Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - RB Leipzig (1.41) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: RB Leipzig will win (30 of 35 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.12% – 97.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): RB Leipzig will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Vandevoordt M. (G) 17. Baku R. 4. Orban W. 23. Lukeba C. 22. Raum D. (C) 20. Ouedraogo A. 24. Schlager X. 14. Baumgartner C. 10. Gruda B. 40. Romulo Cardoso 49. Diomande Y.	22. Vasilj N. (G) 15. Ando T. 8. Smith E. 21. Ritzka L. 11. Pyrka A. 24. Metcalfe C. 7. Irvine J. (C) 16. Fujita J. 23. Oppie L. 27. Hountondji A. 19. Kaars M.
Substitutes
9. Bakayoko J. 5. Bitshiabu E. 35. Finkgrafe M. 1. Gulacsi P. (G) 11. Harder C. 39. Henrichs B. 16. Klostermann L. 7. Nusa A. 13. Seiwald N.	9. Ceesay A. 18. Hara T. 20. Rasmussen M. 10. Sinani D. 14. Stevens F. 1. Voll B. A. (G) 5. Wahl H.
Coaches
Werner O.	Blessin A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', Lukeba C. 🟨,
45', 1 - 0, Schlager X. ⚽, Baumgartner C. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', Baumgartner C. 🟨,
55', 2 - 0, Orban W. ⚽, Raum D. (A),
64', Ritzka L. ↓, Wahl H. ↑,
64', Oppie L. ↓, Stevens F. ↑,
69', Ouedraogo A. ↓, Seiwald N. ↑,
69', Raum D. ↓, Finkgrafe M. ↑,
72', Hountondji A. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,
80', Gruda B. ↓, Nusa A. ↑,
86', 2 - 1, Ceesay A. ⚽, Irvine J. (A),
89', Smith E. ↓, Rasmussen M. ↑,
89', Metcalfe C. ↓, Sinani D. ↑,
90+2', Baku R. ↓, Henrichs B. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 2.

RB Leipzig is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

St. Pauli has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

St. Pauli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, RB Leipzig is the clear favorite.

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Banzuzi E. (Knee Injury) Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Sani S. (Hip Injury) Zingerle L. (Wrist Injury)

There will not play in St. Pauli: Jones R.J. (Ankle Injury) Mets K. (Muscle Injury) Pereira Lage M. (Knee Injury) Saliakas M. (Muscle Injury) Sands J. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in RB Leipzig: Lukeba C. (Muscle Injury) Raum D. (Groin Injury)

We predict that RB Leipzig will win today's game, with odds of 1.33.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:7. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, RB Leipzig won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:4. (average 2.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	RB Leipzig	7	4	0	3	20:11	9	12

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

RB Leipzig: 2.13%

Last Results with these Odds

RB Leipzig - the odds 1.43 are the expected chance of winning is 65.96%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
02.05.26	Bayer Leverkusen - RB Leipzig	4:1 ✺
24.04.26	RB Leipzig - Union Berlin	3:1 ✺
18.04.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - RB Leipzig	1:3 ✺
11.04.26	RB Leipzig - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Werder Bremen - RB Leipzig	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LWWWW
- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
03.05.26	St. Pauli - Mainz	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Heidenheim - St. Pauli	2:0 ✺
17.04.26	St. Pauli - Köln	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	St. Pauli - Bayern Munich	0:5 ✺
05.04.26	Union Berlin - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
27.01.26	St. Pauli - RB Leipzig	1:1
09.02.25	RB Leipzig - St. Pauli	2:0
German DFB Pokal
29.10.24	RB Leipzig - St. Pauli	4:2
German Bundesliga
22.09.24	St. Pauli - RB Leipzig	0:0
German 2 Bundesliga
12.02.16	St. Pauli - RB Leipzig	1:0
23.08.15	RB Leipzig - St. Pauli	0:1
03.05.15	St. Pauli - RB Leipzig	1:0

Upcoming Matches