Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 30

Date: 17 April 2026, Friday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Jollenbeck M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	St. Pauli		Köln

	1	X	2
	3	3.3	2.35	Watch
	3.05	3.2	2.42	Watch
	3.14	3.3	2.49
	3.04	3.3	2.41	Watch
	2.9	3.1	2.4
	3.18	3.33	2.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↑ (2.35)	3.26 ↓ (3.33)	2.43 ↓ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
31.3%

Draw
29.4%

Köln
39.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

28.6%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

28%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that St. Pauli's form might have worsened.

Köln has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Köln's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for St. Pauli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Köln than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Köln, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35%	45%	20%

St. Pauli - Köln Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 6 - 33.3%). Köln will win (votes: 4 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.4% – 67.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH +0.25 - St. Pauli (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 15. Ando T. 5. Wahl H. 3. Mets K. 11. Pyrka A. 7. Irvine J. (C) 20. Rasmussen M. 21. Ritzka L. 10. Sinani D. 28. Pereira Lage M. 27. Hountondji A.	1. Schwabe M. (C) 28. Sebulonsen S. 22. Simpson-Pusey J. 39. Ozkacar C. 17. Castro-Montes A. 29. Thielmann J. 18. Johannesson I. 6. Martel E. 16. Kaminski J. 9. Ache R. 13. El Mala S.
Substitutes
9. Ceesay A. 25. Dzwigala A. 18. Hara T. 19. Kaars M. 24. Metcalfe C. 4. Nemeth D. 23. Oppie L. 2. Saliakas M. 1. Voll B. A. (G)	30. Bulter M. 27. Chavez F. 5. Krauss T. 32. Lund K. 37. Maina L. 2. Schmied J. 33. van den Berg R. 7. Waldschmidt L. 20. Zieler R. (G)
Coaches
Blessin A.	Wagner R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Thielmann J. ↓, Maina L. ↑,
51', Ache R. ↓, Bulter M. ↑,
65', Ritzka L. ↓, Saliakas M. ↑,
69', 1 - 0, Mets K. ⚽, Wahl H. (A),
70', Castro-Montes A. ↓, Lund K. ↑,
71', Hountondji A. 🟨,
76', Ando T. 🟨,
77', Hountondji A. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
79', Sebulonsen S. ↓, Chavez F. ↑,
79', Johannesson I. ↓, Waldschmidt L. ↑,
86', 1 - 1, Waldschmidt L. (Penalty Awarded),
87', Pereira Lage M. 🟨,
87', El Mala S. 🟨,
87', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
90+6', Sinani D. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation) and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 0.

St. Pauli is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Köln's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in St. Pauli: Fujita J. (Yellow Cards) Jones R.J. (Ankle Injury) Sands J. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Köln: Hubers T. (Knee Injury) Kilian L. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in St. Pauli: Smith E. (Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 5:18. (average 0.7:2.6).

Including home matches between the teams, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:9. (average 1:3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	FC Koln	4	1	1	2	6:9	-3	4

Last Results with these Odds

St. Pauli - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 40.47%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
11.04.26	St. Pauli - Bayern Munich	0:5 ✺
05.04.26	Union Berlin - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	St. Pauli - Freiburg	1:2 ✺
13.03.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - St. Pauli	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	St. Pauli - Eintracht Frankfurt	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTLLT
- 1. FC Köln
German Bundesliga
12.04.26	Köln - Werder Bremen	3:1 ✺
05.04.26	Eintracht Frankfurt - Köln	2:2 ✺
21.03.26	Köln - Borussia Mönchengladbach	3:3 ✺
14.03.26	Hamburger SV - Köln	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Köln - Borussia Dortmund	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WTTTL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
06.12.25	Köln - St. Pauli	1:1
German 2 Bundesliga
08.02.19	Köln - St. Pauli	4:1
02.09.18	St. Pauli - Köln	3:5
04.05.14	Köln - St. Pauli	4:0
29.11.13	St. Pauli - Köln	0:3
18.02.13	St. Pauli - Köln	0:1
17.09.12	Köln - St. Pauli	0:0

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