Match Info

DFB Pokal - 1/16-finals

Date: 28 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Mix
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2, Oneplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 3, Sky Sport 7, Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Slovakia	Voyo
Switzerland	Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Sport


	St. Pauli		Hoffenheim

	1	X	2
	3	3.6	2.25	Watch
	2.92	3.45	2.22	Watch
	1.72	3.84	4.47	Watch
	2.91	3.44	2.31	Watch
	2.8	3.45	2.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.37)	3.56 ↑ (3.5)	2.73 ↓ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
36.7%

Draw
27.5%

Hoffenheim
35.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

27.1%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8%

28.2%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Hoffenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for St. Pauli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	12.1%	78.8%

St. Pauli - Hoffenheim Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 2 - 6.9%). Hoffenheim will win (votes: 24 - 82.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 10.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hoffenheim: 69.1% – 96.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hoffenheim will win (11 of 14 users predict this - 78.57%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Voll B. A. (G) 5. Wahl H. 8. Smith E. (C) 3. Mets K. 11. Pyrka A. 6. Sands J. 16. Fujita J. 23. Oppie L. 24. Metcalfe C. 27. Hountondji A. 17. Afolayan O.	1. Baumann O. (G) 22. Prass A. 2. Hranac R. 21. Hajdari A. 13. Bernardo 27. Kramaric A. 7. Avdullahu L. 6. Promel G. 29. Toure B. 19. Lemperle T. 11. Asllani F.
Substitutes
9. Ceesay A. 25. Dzwigala A. 7. Irvine J. 19. Kaars M. 28. Pereira Lage M. 21. Ritzka L. 2. Saliakas M. 10. Sinani D. 22. Vasilj N. (G)	25. Akpoguma K. 9. Bebou I. 18. Burger W. 10. Damar M. 54. Erlein L. 5. Kabak O. 33. Moerstedt M. 37. Philipp L. (G) 17. Tohumcu U.
Coaches
Blessin A.	Ilzer C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Wahl H. ⚽, Smith E. (A),
21', Pyrka A. 🟨,
39', Blessin A. 🟨,
40', Promel G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', 1 - 1, Promel G. ⚽, Kramaric A. (A),
50', Hajdari A. 🟨,
66', Pyrka A. ↓, Saliakas M. ↑,
66', Hountondji A. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,
71', Promel G. ↓, Burger W. ↑,
74', Ceesay A. 🟨,
76', Hranac R. 🟨,
77', Asllani F. ↓, Bebou I. ↑,
80', Afolayan O. ↓, Pereira Lage M. ↑,
81', Metcalfe C. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
85', Hranac R. ↓, Kabak O. ↑,
86', Mets K. 🟨,
86', Lemperle T. ↓, Tohumcu U. ↑,
90+2', Pereira Lage M. 🟨,
90+4', Mets K. ↓, Ritzka L. ↑,
Extra Time (1 - 1)
107', 1 - 2, Kramaric A. (Pen),
108', Prass A. ↓, Akpoguma K. ↑,
119', Saliakas M. 🟨,
119', Kramaric A. 🟨,
120+2', 2 - 2, Pereira Lage M. ⚽,
Penalties (8 - 7)
1, Smith E. (Pen),
1, Kramaric A. (Pen),
2, Oppie L. (Pen),
2, Burger W. (Pen),
3, Kaars M. (Pen),
3, Bebou I. (Pen),
4, Pereira Lage M. (Pen),
4, Avdullahu L. (Pen),
5, Saliakas M. (Pen),
5, Bernardo (Pen),
6, Fujita J. (Pen),
6, Toure B. (Pen),
7, Sands J. (Pen),
7, Kabak O. (Pen),
8, Ceesay A. (Pen),
8, Tohumcu U. (Pen),
9, Wahl H. (Pen),
9, Hajdari A. (Pen),

Preview

St. Pauli has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Hoffenheim has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

We predict that Hoffenheim will win today's game, with odds of 2.4.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, St. Pauli won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
25.10.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - St. Pauli	2:0 ✺
19.10.25	St. Pauli - Hoffenheim	0:3 ✺
04.10.25	Werder Bremen - St. Pauli	1:0 ✺
27.09.25	St. Pauli - Bayer Leverkusen	1:2 ✺
19.09.25	Stuttgart - St. Pauli	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- TSG Hoffenheim
German Bundesliga
25.10.25	Hoffenheim - Heidenheim	3:1 ✺
19.10.25	St. Pauli - Hoffenheim	0:3 ✺
03.10.25	Hoffenheim - Köln	0:1 ✺
28.09.25	Freiburg - Hoffenheim	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Hoffenheim - Bayern Munich	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
19.10.25	St. Pauli - Hoffenheim	0:3
14.03.25	St. Pauli - Hoffenheim	1:0
02.11.24	Hoffenheim - St. Pauli	0:2

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