Match Info

DFB Pokal - 1/16-finals

Date: 29 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin)

Referee: Osmers H. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Mix
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 3, Sky Sport 7, Sky Sport 8, Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Switzerland	Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 13


	Union Berlin		Arminia Bielefeld

	1	X	2
	1.62	4.2	5	Watch
	1.65	3.95	4.7	Watch
				Watch
	1.65	3.96	4.79	Watch
	1.69	3.95	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.74)	4.02 ↑ (3.9)	4.77 ↑ (4.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Union Berlin
56.9%

Draw
23.4%

Arminia Bielefeld
19.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54%

24.1%

21.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.9%

23.7%

21.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Union Berlin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Arminia Bielefeld has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arminia Bielefeld than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.3%	0%	6.7%

Union Berlin - Arminia Bielefeld Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Union Berlin (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Arminia (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Arminia (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Union Berlin (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Union Berlin will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Union Berlin (votes: 3 - 60%). Arminia (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronnow F. (G) 5. Doekhi D. 14. Querfeld L. 4. Leite D. 28. Trimmel C. (C) 8. Khedira R. 13. Schafer A. 15. Rothe T. 21. Skarke T. 23. Ilic A. 10. Ansah I.	1. Kersken J. (G) 27. Boakye B. 23. Schneider L. 19. Grosser M. 3. Felix J. 29. Handwerker T. 14. Momuluh T. 6. Corboz M. (C) 38. Worl M. 11. Grodowski J. 37. Sarenren Bazee N.
Substitutes
30. Bogdanov D. 7. Burke O. 19. Haberer J. 11. Jeong Woo-Yeong 6. Kemlein A. 39. Kohn D. 33. Kral A. 34. Nsoki S. 31. Raab M. (G)	2. Hagmann F. 7. Kania J. 24. Lannert C. 10. Mehlem M. 20. Micheler F. 18. Oppermann L. (G) 8. Schreck S. 17. Sicker A. 30. Young I.
Coaches
Baumgart S.	Kniat M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Querfeld L. ⚽, Trimmel C. (A),
27', 1 - 1, Momuluh T. ⚽, Corboz M. (A),
29', Schafer A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Sarenren Bazee N. 🟨,
60', Ansah I. ↓, Jeong Woo-Yeong ↑,
61', Schafer A. ↓, Kemlein A. ↑,
66', Ilic A. 🟨,
67', Ilic A. ↓, Bogdanov D. ↑,
67', Skarke T. ↓, Burke O. ↑,
73', Sarenren Bazee N. ↓, Kania J. ↑,
73', Grodowski J. ↓, Mehlem M. ↑,
73', Momuluh T. ↓, Young I. ↑,
76', Trimmel C. ↓, Haberer J. ↑,
81', Worl M. ↓, Hagmann F. ↑,
Extra Time (1 - 0)
95', Doekhi D. 🟨,
99', Mehlem M. 🟨,
104', Felix J. ↓, Sicker A. ↑,
106', 2 - 1, Doekhi D. ⚽, Bogdanov D. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 2.

Union Berlin has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Arminia's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Union Berlin is considered a favorite.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 26:18. (average 1.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Union Berlin won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 19:6. (average 2.1:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
24.10.25	Werder Bremen - Union Berlin	1:0 ✺
17.10.25	Union Berlin - Borussia Mönchengladbach	3:1 ✺
04.10.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin	2:0 ✺
28.09.25	Union Berlin - Hamburger SV	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - Union Berlin	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 LWLTW
- Arminia Bielefeld
German 2 Bundesliga
25.10.25	Arminia Bielefeld - Elversberg	2:0 ✺
18.10.25	Paderborn - Arminia Bielefeld	4:3 ✺
05.10.25	Arminia Bielefeld - Schalke 04	1:2 ✺
28.09.25	Hannover - Arminia Bielefeld	3:1 ✺
19.09.25	Arminia Bielefeld - Greuther Fürth	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

German DFB Pokal
30.10.24	Arminia Bielefeld - Union Berlin	2:0
Club Friendly
06.01.24	Union Berlin - Arminia Bielefeld	2:0
German Bundesliga
19.02.22	Arminia Bielefeld - Union Berlin	1:0
25.09.21	Union Berlin - Arminia Bielefeld	1:0
07.03.21	Arminia Bielefeld - Union Berlin	0:0
07.11.20	Union Berlin - Arminia Bielefeld	5:0
German 2 Bundesliga
22.02.19	Union Berlin - Arminia Bielefeld	1:1

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