Match Info

Division 1 - Round 10

Date: 19 September 2025, Friday

Location: Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu (Mielec)

Referee: Lewandowski L. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport


	Stal Mielec		Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.6	2.7	Watch
	2.3	3.6	2.72
	2.33	3.84	2.78
	7.39	1.61	3.19	Watch
	2.28	3.62	2.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.32 ↑ (2.23)	3.25 ↓ (3.55)	2.82 ↑ (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Stal Mielec
31.3%

Draw
31.9%

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

25.9%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

24.8%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Stal Mielec's form might have worsened.

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+11.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Stal Mielec, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	33.3%	50%

Stal Mielec - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Stal Mielec will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Grodzisk Mazowiecki will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Grodzisk Mazowiecki (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Grodzisk Mazowiecki (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Grodzisk Mazowiecki (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matys M. (G) 21. Kwiatkowski P. 44. Puerto I. 15. Senger M. 20. Szeliga B. (C) 6. Pisek J. 23. Sommerfeld K. 27. Diez A. 90. Kruszelnicki P. 11. Odolak K. 9. Losada M.	1. Kieszek P. (G) 99. Noiszewski K. 16. Gajgier A. 6. Farbiszewski B. 52. Olewinski O. 4. Korczakowski I. 21. Los K. (C) 31. Staniszewski J. 7. Jedrasik J. 9. Gieroba S. 19. Adamski R.
Substitutes
10. Domanski M. 32. Gerbowski F. 13. Jalocha K. (G) 3. Kowalik P. 17. Mazurek D. 8. Niedzwiedz N. 77. Sadlocha K.	77. Adkonis J. . Barnowski D. 80. Glacel M. (G) 10. Jaron D. 11. Kargulewicz K. 27. Konstantyn J. 13. Lis J. 71. Szczepaniak M. 20. Wypart O.
Coaches
Djurdjevic I.	Stokowiec P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', Puerto I. 🟨,
24', 0 - 1, Noiszewski K. ⚽, Gieroba S. (A),
45+4', 1 - 1, Losada M. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Kwiatkowski P. ↓, Gerbowski F. ↑,
60', Gieroba S. ↓, Jaron D. ↑,
60', Olewinski O. ↓, Barnowski D. ↑,
65', Puerto I. 🟨,
66', 🟨,
67', Jedrasik J. ↓, Konstantyn J. ↑,
67', Staniszewski J. ↓, Adkonis J. ↑,
77', Losada M. ↓, Kowalik P. ↑,
77', Kruszelnicki P. ↓, Sadlocha K. ↑,
81', Korczakowski I. 🟨,
82', Barnowski D. 🟨,
84', Noiszewski K. ↓, Lis J. ↑,
90+2', Los K. 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 2, Barnowski D. ⚽, Adamski R. (A),

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Stal Mielec - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 41.2%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stal Mielec
Polish Division 1
15.09.25	Wieczysta Kraków - Stal Mielec	2:0 ✺
31.08.25	Stal Mielec - Ruch Chorzów	2:2 ✺
25.08.25	GKS Tychy - Stal Mielec	0:1 ✺
21.08.25	Stal Mielec - Odra Opole	2:1 ✺
15.08.25	ŁKS Łódź - Stal Mielec	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LTWWL
- Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Polish Division 1
14.09.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Górnik Łęczna	3:3 ✺
30.08.25	Polonia Warsaw - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	2:1 ✺
23.08.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Chrobry Głogów	1:1 ✺
20.08.25	Polonia Bytom - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	3:0 ✺
16.08.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Znicz Pruszków	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 TLTLW

Upcoming Matches