Match Info

Division 1 - Round 16

Date: 8 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu (Mielec)

Referee: Borowiak A. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app


	Stal Mielec		Pogoń Siedlce

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.5	2.7	Watch
	2.32	3.6	2.72	Watch
	2.38	3.7	2.82
	2.67	3.52	2.35	Watch
	2.38	3.54	2.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↓ (2.67)	3.57 ↑ (3.52)	2.66 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stal Mielec
38.7%

Draw
26.2%

Pogoń Siedlce
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

26.2%

39.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.2%

25.9%

39.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stal Mielec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Pogoń Siedlce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pogoń Siedlce than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	0%	38.5%

Stal Mielec - Pogoń Siedlce Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Stal Mielec will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Pogoń Siedlce will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stal Mielec: 35% – 88%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 - Stal Mielec (7.60) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Stal Mielec will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Stal Mielec (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Pogoń Siedlce (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matys M. (G) 27. Diez A. 44. Puerto I. 15. Senger M. 22. Kavcic M. 18. Wlazlo P. 10. Domanski M. (C) 6. Pisek J. 20. Szeliga B. 9. Losada M. 90. Kruszelnicki P.	57. Lemanowicz J. (G) 14. Jakubik D. 3. Dembek B. 6. Flis M. 4. Misiak P. 10. Drag M. 31. Dzieciol E. 56. Demianiuk C. 7. Szuprytowski D. (C) 11. Famulak M. 13. Podlinski K.
Substitutes
32. Gerbowski F. 13. Jalocha K. (G) 3. Kowalik P. 5. Matynia H. 17. Mazurek D. 8. Niedzwiedz N. 11. Odolak K. 77. Sadlocha K. 23. Sommerfeld K.	26. Kolodziejski M. 19. Kozlowski O. 29. Niezgoda J. 41. Pakulski D. 17. Saganowski F. 21. Stypulkowski S. 1. Tomkiel J. (G) 27. Zbrog J. 95. Zielonka N.
Coaches
Mamrot I.	Nocon A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', Drag M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Pisek J. 🟨,
60', Pisek J. ↓, Odolak K. ↑,
60', Szeliga B. ↓, Matynia H. ↑,
63', Demianiuk C. ↓, Zbrog J. ↑,
72', Kavcic M. 🟨,
77', Kavcic M. ↓, Gerbowski F. ↑,
77', Szuprytowski D. ↓, Zielonka N. ↑,
80', Puerto I. 🟥,
83', Losada M. ↓, Kowalik P. ↑,
90', Dembek B. 🟨,
90+1', Jakubik D. 🟨,
90+2', Kruszelnicki P. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 2 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stal Mielec won 1.

Stal Mielec is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Pogoń Siedlce has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Stal Mielec may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Stal Mielec won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:13. (average 1:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Stal Mielec won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 1.5:2.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Stal Mielec - the odds 2.67 are the expected chance of winning is 34.55%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stal Mielec
Polish Division 1
05.11.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Stal Mielec	1:1 ✺
26.10.25	Stal Mielec - Miedź Legnica	1:2 ✺
19.10.25	Śląsk Wrocław - Stal Mielec	2:1 ✺
03.10.25	Stal Mielec - Chrobry Głogów	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Stal Rzeszów - Stal Mielec	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TLLLL
- Pogoń Siedlce
Polish Division 1
02.11.25	Stal Rzeszów - Pogoń Siedlce	1:1 ✺
25.10.25	Pogoń Siedlce - ŁKS Łódź	3:1 ✺
17.10.25	Miedź Legnica - Pogoń Siedlce	2:2 ✺
04.10.25	Pogoń Siedlce - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	GKS Tychy - Pogoń Siedlce	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 TWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Cup
25.09.18	Pogoń Siedlce - Stal Mielec	2:1
Polish Division 1
17.03.18	Pogoń Siedlce - Stal Mielec	1:2
23.08.17	Stal Mielec - Pogoń Siedlce	2:3
04.06.17	Stal Mielec - Pogoń Siedlce	1:2
23.11.16	Pogoń Siedlce - Stal Mielec	1:0
Polish Division 2 - East
19.04.14	Pogoń Siedlce - Stal Mielec	4:0

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