Match Info

ENGLAND: CHAMPIONSHIP - ROUND 28

Date: 21 January 2023, Saturday

Location: Bet365 Stadium (Stoke on Trent)

Referee: Ward G. (Eng)


	Stoke City		Reading

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.4	4.2
	1.95	3.3	4.1
	1.95	3.6	4
	1.93	3.3	4
	1.96	3.44	4.37
	1.91	3.25	4.2
	1.9	3.45	4.3	Watch
	1.93	3.5	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.12)	3.41 ↑ (3.2)	4.17 ↑ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stoke City
49.3%

Draw
27.9%

Reading
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

29%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

28.4%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stoke City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Stoke City's performance.

Reading has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Reading than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
48.6%	32.4%	18.9%

Stoke City - Reading Predictions

Users Predictions: 37 users predict this event. Stoke will win (votes: 18 - 48.6%). Reading will win (votes: 7 - 18.9%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 32.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stoke: 32.5% – 64.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 20 and 14).

Stoke has the most likely position - 18 (8.74%), has project points - 57, has currently - 30, has a small chance of relegated (10%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (2%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Reading has the most likely position - 15 (7.89%), has project points - 61, has currently - 37, has a very small chance of relegated (4%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (6%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 41, small importance 15, small match rating 28. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Stoke won 2.

Stoke is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Reading is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Stoke is a favorite.

There will not play in Stoke: Clucas S. (Injury) Sterling D. (Injury)

There will not play in Reading: Fornah T. (Injury) Moore L. (Injury) Tetek D. (Injury)

Last 12 head-to-head matches Stoke won 3 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 14-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Stoke won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stoke City
English League Championship
14.01.23	Sheffield United - Stoke City	3:1 ✺
English FA Cup
08.01.23	Hartlepool United - Stoke City	0:3 ✺
English League Championship
02.01.23	Stoke City - Preston North End	0:1 ✺
30.12.22	Stoke City - Burnley	0:1 ✺
26.12.22	Rotherham United - Stoke City	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LWLLT
- Reading
English League Championship
14.01.23	Reading - Queens Park Rangers	2:2 ✺
English FA Cup
07.01.23	Reading - Watford	2:0 ✺
English League Championship
02.01.23	West Bromwich Albion - Reading	1:0 ✺
30.12.22	Norwich City - Reading	1:1 ✺
27.12.22	Reading - Swansea City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
04.09.22	Reading - Stoke City	2:1
05.04.22	Reading - Stoke City	2:1
07.08.21	Stoke City - Reading	3:2
06.02.21	Stoke City - Reading	0:0
07.11.20	Reading - Stoke City	0:3
20.06.20	Reading - Stoke City	1:1
14.12.19	Stoke City - Reading	0:0

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