Match Info

Date: 24 November 2020, Tuesday


	Swindon Town		Lincoln City

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.6	1.95
	3.4	3.6	2
	3.8	3.65	1.95
	3.7	3.35	1.95
	3.96	3.6	2.01
	3.6	3.4	1.95
	3.78	3.7	2.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.71 ↑ (3.1)	3.56 ↑ (3.53)	1.98 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Swindon Town
25.5%

Draw
26.6%

Lincoln City
47.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.6%

26.8%

42.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

18.5%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Swindon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Swindon Town's form might have worsened.

Lincoln City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lincoln City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+18.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Swindon Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lincoln City than the current prediction. (-18.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lincoln City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29%	16.1%	54.8%

Swindon Town - Lincoln City Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Swindon will win (votes: 9 - 29%). Lincoln will win (votes: 17 - 54.8%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 16.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lincoln: 37.3% – 72.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

No spectators. No spectators.

Swindon has a chance of relegated (30%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (2%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Lincoln has a very small chance of relegated (1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (26%), has a small chance of promoted (11%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Swindon could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Lincoln will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Swindon won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Swindon won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Swindon Town
English League One
21.11.20	Swindon Town - Bristol Rovers	1:0 ✺
17.11.20	Swindon Town - Accrington Stanley	0:3 ✺
14.11.20	Shrewsbury Town - Swindon Town	3:3 ✺
English EFL Trophy
10.11.20	Forest Green Rovers - Swindon Town	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
07.11.20	Swindon Town - Darlington	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLTWL
- Lincoln City
English League One
21.11.20	Accrington Stanley - Lincoln City	0:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
17.11.20	Lincoln City - Manchester City U21	2:1 penalties ✺
English FA Cup
07.11.20	Lincoln City - Forest Green Rovers	6:2 ✺
English League One
03.11.20	Lincoln City - Portsmouth	1:3 ✺
31.10.20	Doncaster Rovers - Lincoln City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
12.01.19	Swindon Town - Lincoln City	2:2
11.08.18	Lincoln City - Swindon Town	4:1
03.02.18	Lincoln City - Swindon Town	2:2
17.10.17	Swindon Town - Lincoln City	0:1

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