Match Info

Copa del Rey - 1/16-finals

Date: 17 December 2025, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


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Venezuela	Inter, Meridiano


	Talavera de la Reina		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
	17	11	1.06	Watch
	22	11	1.06
	22.11	11.02	1.07
	22.71	12.00	1.09	Watch
	23	9.5	1.1
	27	11.3	1.1	Watch
	21	9.5	1.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	22.12 ↑ (16)	10.76 ↑ (7)	1.08 ↓ (1.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Talavera de la Reina
4.3%

Draw
8.7%

Real Madrid
87%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

5.8%

13.2%

81%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Talavera de la Reina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Real Madrid's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.9%	0%	94.1%

Talavera de la Reina - Real Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Talavera will win (votes: 1 - 5.9%). Real will win (votes: 16 - 94.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 82.9% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.75 - Talavera (2.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.75, 1st Half - Talavera (2.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - Real (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Real (1.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Real (1.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +1 - Real (1.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Real (1.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.75, 1st Half - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Talavera (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Real (votes: 11 - 84.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gonzalez J. (G) 2. Cuenca D. 4. Lopez A. 23. Farrando M. 3. Roig A. 11. Gallardo Rodriguez E. (C) 6. Pitu 16. Navarro I. 8. Sanchez L. 7. Di Renzo G. 9. Moreno M.	13. Lunin A. (C) 35. Jimenez D. 24. Huijsen D. 18. Carreras A. 20. Garcia F. 15. Guler A. 19. Ceballos D. 30. Mastantuono F. 16. Garcia G. 10. Mbappe K. 9. Endrick
Substitutes
15. Arroyo N. 10. Ayllon I. 18. Capo P. 14. Molina A. 5. Molina S. 21. Montero Sergio 17. Ouacharaf B. 13. Rocafort R. (G) 22. Rodriguez F. 26. Sanchez J.	5. Bellingham J. 28. Cestero Sancho J. 26. Fran (G) 36. Martinez J. 29. Navarro Jimenez J. (G) 45. Pitarch T. 11. Rodrygo 14. Tchouameni A. 40. Valdepenas V. 7. Vinicius Junior
Coaches
Nogales D.	Alonso X.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
38', Gallardo Rodriguez E. 🟨,
41', 0 - 1, Mbappe K. (Penalty Awarded),
45+1', 0 - 2, Farrando M. (Own goal),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Sanchez L. ↓, Capo P. ↑,
46', Cuenca D. ↓, Molina S. ↑,
59', Roig A. ↓, Arroyo N. ↑,
66', Mastantuono F. ↓, Rodrygo ↑,
69', Moreno M. ↓, Montero Sergio ↑,
77', Gallardo Rodriguez E. ↓, Molina A. ↑,
77', Endrick ↓, Bellingham J. ↑,
77', Guler A. ↓, Tchouameni A. ↑,
80', 1 - 2, Arroyo N. ⚽, Farrando M. (A),
86', Ceballos D. ↓, Cestero Sancho J. ↑,
88', 1 - 3, Mbappe K. ⚽, Tchouameni A. (A),
90', Bellingham J. 🟨,
90+1', 2 - 3, Di Renzo G. ⚽,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Real may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Real is the obvious favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Talavera de la Reina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.12.25	Talavera de la Reina - Mérida AD	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Arenteiro - Talavera de la Reina	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
03.12.25	Talavera de la Reina - Málaga	2:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
30.11.25	Talavera de la Reina - Cacereño	0:1 ✺
23.11.25	Zamora - Talavera de la Reina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WLWLL
- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
14.12.25	Deportivo Alavés - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Real Madrid - Manchester City	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
07.12.25	Real Madrid - Celta de Vigo	0:2 ✺
03.12.25	Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid	0:3 ✺
30.11.25	Girona - Real Madrid	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WLLWT

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