Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 20

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: BUKO Stadion (Velsen-Zuid)

Referee: Hensgens R. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1
Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Canada	Sportsnet+, Sportsnet World
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 3
France	DAZN France
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
India	Eurosport, JioTV app
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 4
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 1
Peru	Disney+
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Slovakia	Arena sport 1, Sport TV2
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Triller TV+


	Telstar		AZ Alkmaar

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.3	2.05	Watch
	3.15	3.7	2.12
	3.25	3.8	2.17
	3.2	3.73	2.12	Watch
	3.1	3.4	2.05
	3.27	3.69	2.15	Watch
	3.2	3.5	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.18 ↓ (4.23)	3.59 ↓ (4)	2.11 ↑ (1.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Telstar
29.5%

Draw
26.1%

AZ Alkmaar
44.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.1%

23.3%

54.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.9%

23%

55.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Telstar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Telstar's performance.

AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AZ Alkmaar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Telstar than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Telstar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+10.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AZ Alkmaar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	0%	84.6%

Telstar - AZ Alkmaar Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - AZ (2.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: AZ Alkmaar will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): AZ Alkmaar will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. AZ (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Koeman R. (G) 14. Ogidi Nwankwo N. 4. Offerhaus G. 6. Bakker D. (C) 11. Noslin T. 17. Rossen N. 23. Hatenboer C. 2. Hardeveld J. 39. Ritmeester van de Kamp J. 9. Zonneveld M. 7. Hetli S.	41. Zoet J. (G) 22. Dijkstra E. 3. Goes W. 5. Penetra 34. de Wit M. 6. Koopmeiners P. (C) 33. Sin M. 20. Boogaard K. 7. Weslley Patati 9. Parrott T. 27. Daal R.
Substitutes
13. Bodak T. (G) 10. Hamdaoui M. 15. Lechkar A. 29. Malone D. 16. Mertens D. 28. Oudsten R. 20. Reiziger D. (G) 30. Tejan K.	31. Deen D. (G) 4. Dekker M. 19. Hornkamp J. 17. Jensen I. 2. Maikuma S. 24. Oufkir A. 56. Robbemond R. 11. Sadiq I. 23. van Duijl B. 12. Verhulst H. (G)
Coaches
Correia A.	Echteld L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Koopmeiners P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Sin M. ↓, Jensen I. ↑,
46', Weslley Patati ↓, Dekker M. ↑,
54', Goes W. 🟨,
58', Dijkstra E. ↓, Maikuma S. ↑,
65', Hatenboer C. ↓, Mertens D. ↑,
65', Noslin T. ↓, Lechkar A. ↑,
76', Zonneveld M. ↓, Tejan K. ↑,
76', Hetli S. ↓, Hamdaoui M. ↑,
78', 0 - 1, Jensen I. ⚽, Parrott T. (A),
81', Tejan K. 🟨,
81', Daal R. ↓, Oufkir A. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Eredivisie (Relegation) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).

Telstar is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

AZ's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

AZ may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Telstar has had a series of away games.

In this match, AZ is considered a favorite.

There will not play in AZ: Clasie J. (Ankle Injury) Kasius D. (Injury) Meerdink M. (Groin Injury) Mijnans S. (Injury)

There are questionable in AZ: Boogaard K. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Telstar won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:9. (average 0.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Telstar won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	6	1	1	18:8	10	19
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	5:12	-7	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Telstar
Dutch Eredivisie
17.01.26	Excelsior - Telstar	2:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
14.01.26	Almere City - Telstar	1:3 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
11.01.26	Telstar - Ajax	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
05.01.26	Málaga - Telstar	Canceled ✺
05.01.26	Marbella - Telstar	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TWL??
- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
21.01.26	AZ Alkmaar - Excelsior	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Zwolle - AZ Alkmaar	3:1 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
14.01.26	AZ Alkmaar - Ajax	6:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
10.01.26	AZ Alkmaar - Volendam	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Fortuna Sittard - AZ Alkmaar	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
05.10.25	AZ Alkmaar - Telstar	2:1
Club Friendly
13.07.19	Telstar - AZ Alkmaar	3:0
16.07.16	AZ Alkmaar - Telstar	3:0
Dutch KNVB Beker
29.10.15	Telstar - AZ Alkmaar	0:1
Club Friendly
18.07.15	AZ Alkmaar - Telstar	3:0

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