Match Info

Eredivisie - Relegation - Play Offs - Final

Date: 29 May 2025, Thursday

Location: 711 Stadium (Velsen-Zuid)

Referee: Manschot J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1


	Telstar		Willem II

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.1	3	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3.4
	2.45	3.2	2.95	Watch
	2.48	3.26	3.05
	2.44	3.18	3.07	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.4
	2.47	3.24	2.96	Watch
	2.45	3.2	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (1.87)	3.2 ↓ (3.55)	3.1 ↓ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Telstar
39.9%

Draw
29.6%

Willem II
30.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

26.3%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.9%

25.2%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Telstar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Telstar's form might have worsened.

Willem II has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Willem II's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Telstar than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Telstar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Willem II than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Willem II, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	21.4%	21.4%

Telstar - Willem II Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Telstar will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Willem II will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Telstar: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Telstar (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Willem II (2.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Telstar (votes: 1 - 20%). Willem II (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Koeman R. (G) 3. Apau M. (C) 21. Koswal D. 6. Bakker D. 11. Noslin T. 25. Owusu T. 4. Offerhaus G. 17. Rossen N. 2. Hardeveld J. 9. El Kachati Y. 14. Kaandorp M.	1. Didillon T. (G) 33. St. Jago T. 6. Lambert B. 30. Behounek R. 5. Sigurgeirsson R. 8. Bosch J. (C) 34. Lachkar A. 7. Doodeman N. 77. Kaygin D. 16. Meerveld R. 9. Vaesen K.
Substitutes
28. Bodak T. (G) 16. Douiri A. 19. Hagedoorn S. 20. Houweling J. (G) 27. Kharchouch R. 23. Koubini R. 15. Lechkar A. 24. Olfers Y. 12. Overtoom T. 8. Turfkruier J. 18. van Ekeris R. 26. van Schooneveld J.	21. Ahmed Fatah A. 18. Bokila J. 17. Joosten P. 11. Kehrer E. 15. Pivas M. 14. Sandra C. 4. Schouten E. 41. Schut M. (G) 19. Sylla Y. 51. van Aalst U. 24. van den Berg C. (G) 50. van Loon P.
Coaches
Correia A.	Aelbrecht K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Meerveld R. ⚽, Vaesen K. (A),
16', Koswal D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Koswal D. ↓, Turfkruier J. ↑,
56', 1 - 1, Sigurgeirsson R. (Own goal),
61', Behounek R. 🟨,
65', 2 - 1, El Kachati Y. ⚽, Bakker D. (A),
69', Kaandorp M. ↓, van Ekeris R. ↑,
71', Doodeman N. ↓, Kehrer E. ↑,
71', Kaygin D. ↓, Sandra C. ↑,
81', 2 - 2, Kehrer E. ⚽, Vaesen K. (A),
82', Owusu T. ↓, Overtoom T. ↑,
82', El Kachati Y. ↓, Kharchouch R. ↑,
86', Lambert B. 🟨,
87', Vaesen K. ↓, Sylla Y. ↑,
88', Noslin T. ↓, Hagedoorn S. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Telstar won 0.

Telstar is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Willem II has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Telstar might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Telstar: Hetli S. (Injury)

There will not play in Willem II: Mathieu D. (Knee Injury) Tirpan M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Willem II: Mathijsen J. (Injury) Nizet R. (Injury) Schouten E. (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Telstar won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:17. (average 0.9:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Telstar won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:6. (average 1.3:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Telstar
Dutch Eredivisie
23.05.25	Telstar - Den Bosch	2:1 ET ✺
20.05.25	Den Bosch - Telstar	0:0 ✺
17.05.25	ADO Den Haag - Telstar	0:1 ✺
13.05.25	Telstar - ADO Den Haag	2:0 ✺
Dutch Eerste Divisie
09.05.25	Telstar - Emmen	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WTWWW
- Willem II
Dutch Eredivisie
24.05.25	Willem II - Dordrecht	4:2 penalties ✺
21.05.25	Dordrecht - Willem II	2:1 ✺
18.05.25	NAC Breda - Willem II	1:1 ✺
14.05.25	Willem II - Zwolle	1:2 ✺
09.05.25	Willem II - Heracles Almelo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
10.05.24	Willem II - Telstar	3:2
24.11.23	Telstar - Willem II	1:5
05.05.23	Telstar - Willem II	0:0
19.08.22	Willem II - Telstar	2:1
Club Friendly
09.07.22	Willem II - Telstar	2:0
Dutch Eerste Divisie
21.04.14	Willem II - Telstar	4:0
01.11.13	Telstar - Willem II	3:1

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