Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 5

Date: 20 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Gregorio "Tepa" Gómez (Tepatitlán)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Tepatitlán de Morelos		Tlaxcala

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.75	3.20	2.25
	3	3.25	2.18	Watch
	3.14	3.49	2.17
	3.02	3.56	2.22	Watch
	2.9	3.45	2.13
	2.96	3.3	2.18	Watch
	3	3.25	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↑ (2.18)	3.36 ↑ (3.13)	2.19 ↓ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tepatitlán de Morelos
30.9%

Draw
27.3%

Tlaxcala
41.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

29.4%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tepatitlán de Morelos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tepatitlán de Morelos's form might have worsened.

Tlaxcala has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tlaxcala's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	20%	80%

Tepatitlán de Morelos - Tlaxcala Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Tlaxcala will win (votes: 8 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tlaxcala: 55.2% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Gatica A. (G) 6. Baez G. (C) 19. Castaneda S. 2. Sanchez G. 22. Sanguinetti F. 11. Olvera G. 34. Henestrosa J. 25. Moreno A. 28. Lopez M. 31. Casas B. 9. Paez L.	30. Nuno A. (G) 1. Govea I. (C) 29. Trejo Castro M. A. 5. Sancho J. 2. Gonzalez C. 17. Zamudio J. 6. Iniestra A. 23. Gonzalez P. 11. Alvarez D. 10. Figueroa F. 19. Camacho Lastra R. E.
Substitutes
4. Alonso R. 32. Arevalo T. 27. Avila H. 35. D. Rodriguez 7. E. Ruiz 23. Godinez J. 17. Gonzalez S. 3. I. Contreras 18. Martinez E. 14. Rios J.	9. Christian 25. Flores B. 21. Garcia E. 28. Hernandez D. 7. Hernandez E. 31. Hernandez R. 27. Ramirez S. (G) 24. Robles E. 3. Santos E. 14. Vazquez B.
Coaches
Bartolotta D.	Ortega A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', 1 - 0, Olvera G. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Paez L. ↓, Gonzalez S. ↑,
49', Sanguinetti F. ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
53', 2 - 0, Moreno A. ⚽, Casas B. (A),
56', Govea I. 🟨,
59', Iniestra A. ↓, Flores B. ↑,
59', Alvarez D. ↓, Hernandez D. ↑,
59', Zamudio J. ↓, Hernandez E. ↑,
60', Martinez E. 🟨,
61', Figueroa F. 🟨,
64', Figueroa F. ↓, Christian ↑,
66', Moreno A. ↓, Arevalo T. ↑,
68', Olvera G. 🟨,
75', 3 - 0, Casas B. ⚽, Arevalo T. (A),
81', Camacho Lastra R. E. (Penalty Awarded),
82', Casas B. ↓, Godinez J. ↑,
82', Gonzalez P. ↓, Robles E. ↑,
83', Baez G. ↓, Alonso R. ↑,
90+3', Flores B. 🟨,
90+8', 3 - 1, Govea I. ⚽,
90+10', 3 - 2, Gonzalez C. ⚽,
90+12', Trejo Castro M. A. 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tepatitlán won 0.

Tlaxcala will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Tepatitlán won 2 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 0.8:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Tepatitlán won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 0.8:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Tlaxcala	11	3	3	5	19:23	-4	12
16	Tepatitlan de Morelos	10	2	0	8	8:29	-21	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tepatitlán de Morelos
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
13.08.26	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:0 ✺
07.08.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético La Paz	0:5 ✺
31.07.26	Correcaminos UAT - Tepatitlán de Morelos	3:1 ✺
24.07.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Alacranes de Durango	0:1 ✺
30.05.26	Jaiba Brava - Tepatitlán de Morelos	4:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Tlaxcala FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
15.08.26	Dorados - Tlaxcala	2:2 ✺
06.08.26	Tlaxcala - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	0:2 ✺
31.07.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Tlaxcala	3:1 ✺
25.07.26	Tlaxcala - Leones Negros UdeG	2:4 ✺
18.04.26	Tlaxcala - Venados	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
01.03.26	Tlaxcala - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:0
19.09.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Tlaxcala	1:2
25.01.25	Tlaxcala - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:2
10.08.24	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Tlaxcala	0:0
04.04.24	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Tlaxcala	1:1
13.10.23	Tlaxcala - Tepatitlán de Morelos	0:1
14.04.23	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Tlaxcala	0:0

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